I have been reluctant to hop on the Tebow bandwagon here in Denver ever since it started rolling and was powered by arguments like "he wins games". I predicted that he wouldn't win more than 2 games as the starter after his performance against the Dolphins. The Broncos have gone on to win all but 1 of their games with him at the helm and have made me look increasingly bad along the way. I'm here to tell you now that I am staying the course. After spending the better part of 3 hours watching every offensive play from Sunday's game I am still not convinced that Tebow can play consistently enough to be a long term starter in the NFL.Going back to the preseason there were issues that needed to be addressed in Tebow's fundamentals that would allow him to be more successful as a passer in the NFL. After watching him play in his 8th game of the season and 14 weeks from where the issues were spotted I haven't seen enough of an improvement in several of those areas to suggest to me that a change is coming. The issues that I'm talking about are footwork, throwing motion, decision making and being able to read the defenses in the pros. I have since been told by many experts and analyst that the throwing motion will never change so there is no reason to even try and fix it. In that case we can expect a certain number of balls to go a rye every now and then and strip sacks to be part of Tebow's future. That still leaves 3 major issues that need to be addressed ant to this point haven't.
Footwork with a good throwing motion is important to get your body lined up for the throw and to help with the overall execution of the throw. If your throwing motion is an issue then the footwork becomes that much more important. There were at least 6 instances where I saw poor footwork on Sunday. It started very early with a play action pass in the 1st quarter. Tebow made the fake hand off and never set his feet after that to throw the ball when he had plenty of time to do so. The result was an incomplete pass. His footwork moving to his right is awful. He looks uncomfortable moving in that direction even when he is shuffling and never sets his feet properly. On another play action pass with around 8 minutes left in the 2nd quarter, Tebow was taking a 5 step drop while faking a hand off. It's called a 5 step drop because that is how many steps it is supposed to take to get to the launch point. It took him 8 steps which caused him to be late to the launch point, late throwing the ball and wound up throwing the ball out of bounds and out of the reach of his receiver. I saw on several occasions throughout the game when Tebow is throwing to his right that he opens his hips to much. He is kicking his lead foot across his body, past where it should be to point at the receiver with proper footwork, and looking like he isn't using either leg to drive the ball. Both times the ball was accurately thrown, but I would figure that 5 out of 10 times that ball flies out in front of the receiver. He routinely looks uncomfortable in the pocket and that doesn't inspire confidence in me that he will ever get there.
During the course of a game the QB has to make numerous decisions, so many that I'm not even going to guess as to the number. That is why the decision making of the QB is always brought into question. Up until Sunday, Tebow had turned the ball over only twice in 7 games. On Sunday he turned it over twice and actually had 2 other times where a play could have been made on the ball. Not all turnovers come from bad decisions, but the ones in this game were. Just under 3 minutes left in the 1st quarter is when Tebow threw his 1 interception. On that play he made several bad decisions. He had a good looking pocket when he decided that he had a lane to run and then pulled down the ball and started to take off. The lane closed and he tried to set back up in the pocket that at this point was collapsing. Tebow then sprinted to his left with his eyes down field looking for a receiver. He throws the ball down the sideline forcing a ball into coverage and it was intercepted. Once he was outside the pocket and there were no wide open receivers in the area he should have just thrown the ball away. He made a similar mistake earlier in the game where it is possible that he was throwing the ball away on a sprin to out to the left, but he threw the ball directly over 2 receivers' heads and into the field of play. That isn't a smart throw away if it was one. There are numerous times throughout the game when Tebow appears to have a solid pocket forming around him and he takes off to run for virtually no gain. He isn't giving himself a chance to see the field and make plays with his arm in those situations and is potentially hurting the team. With just under 8 minutes left in the game Tebow has a great pocket and sits in it for just over 6 seconds before his is hit by a defender. After 6 seconds that ball needs to be out of his hand and holding it for that long is a poor decision that eventually led to a strip sack and a turnover.
I will admit that there has been improvement on Tebow's part when it comes to locking on a receiver, but not nearly enough. You can tell a QB is locked on a receiver when his head doesn't move during a pass play. There are to many times when Tebow doesn't wind up throwing the ball and running after looking at one receiver for that play. Reading defenses in the pros means seeing the defenders move and determining if a receiver has the opportunity to get open. These decisions need to be made quickly and in Tebow's case it is taking around 2.5 to 3 seconds to make the first decision. For those of you not in the know, you typically don't have more than 3.5 seconds to get the ball out of your hand as a QB. Tebow is spending most to all of that time on one guy on average. There were times when I saw him look around to 2 and 3 guys, but it wasn't the norm. If he can't read quicker then there will be guys getting frustrated running open on most plays and never seeing the ball. On what could have been a critical drive in the 4th quarter, Tebow spent to much time looking at one receiver running deep down the field and once he finally looked off he didn't have enough time to find a wide open receiver running under the coverage with room to run for a first. Instead he was barely able to spot a covered receiver and tried to force a ball into him down the field that went out of bounds. Protecting the ball is key in this league and though Tebow hasn't turned the ball over much it isn't like he hasn't given teams opportunities. He has thrown several balls in the last 8 games that should have been picked. There was a corner route that he threw on Sunday that should have been picked, it wouldn't have counted due to a roughing penalty, but it did hit the DB in the hands. Whenever Tebow uses a pump fake he fails to get his second hand back on the ball to secure it. That is how he lost the fumble in the 4th quarter, he pumped and then left the ball low while trying to move to his left and the defender was able to knock it loose. He has been doing it all season but this was the first time he was exposed for doing it. Tebow also fumbled in the first half trying to turn out of bounds. Fortunately for him the ball fell harmlessly out of bounds but there was a chance that ball could have fallen in bounds and turned into a turn over. So, he could have had 4 potential turnovers instead of the 2 that came to fruition.
I believe Tebow complete 5 passes in the first 3 quarters. That isn't new and it isn't an improvement from the first game he played, or game number 5. He is wildly inconsistent and that isn't how you build a long career in the pros. I understand that there were 4 drops in the game and that does have to factor in, but there were also 3 bad balls that were caught as well so I consider it a wash. The fist 3 quarters of a game count and until he can consistently play well for all 4 quarters, and not just against a prevent defense in that last 6 minutes, I can't say that he has improved to a point that he should remain the starter. The defense only gave up 10 points, again, and Tebow was only able to set up 57 and 59 yard field gaols for the game to go into overtime and to win. Granted he did lead a good drive earlier in the game for a chip shot field goal that was blocked, but in the end he only got them close once.
I have been preaching consistency from the beginning and while there has been some improvement over the last 8 games, it isn't consistent improvement. He isn't consistent and once these games get into the 4th quarter they are a coin toss. Like all coin tossing situations you can't win them all. Eventually the coin will fall for the other team and once that starts to happen, how will all the Tebow supporters react? My guess is that they will continue to turn a blind eye to the competition that the Broncos have faced and start blaming the defense for giving up to many points. Whatever the case may be I will remain strong to my principles and preach the same message: In order to win consistently you have to be good over 4 quarters and to this point Tebow hasn't proven he can be good for more than a half of a quarter consistently.
