Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Denver Needs to Evaluate Tebow Properly

Image from speculativesports.com
I need to start by saying that I didn't watch the entire game between the San Diego Chargers and Denver Broncos on Sunday afternoon.  When I was watching, I noticed a Denver offense that was very much in a state of ineffectiveness.  I saw a defense that was playing hard and making some plays.  I turned the game off before half and only turned it back on once I saw that Denver was making a comeback.  Once the game was back on I was amazed to see Tim Tebow at the helm and leading the broncos down the field.  I will take you through the comeback and why it was able to happen and then focus on what the Broncos need to focus on for the rest of the season when evaluating their soon to be starter, Tim Tebow.

After 5 games the Broncos are 1-4 and have virtually played themselves out of the playoffs already.  For that reason alone I am feel that the move about to be made at QB is appropriate.  If anyone says that the reason for switching QB's is solely due to Orton's lack of production, especially against the Chargers, then they would be flat out wrong.  Orton wasn't the problem in Sunday's game, the receivers were.  Like I said, I didn't watch the entire game, but I did see a clip where the commentator showed replays from 3 different pass plays.  He showed those plays specifically because they were prime examples of Orton having no one, and I mean no one to throw too.  Orton went 6-13 (46%) in the first half when his receivers were covered extremely well.  I will say that the interception he threw on the first series was a terrible decision followed by awful execution.  The Broncos offense had scored 3 points in the half and the game was getting out of reach based on their production to that point. 

In the second half coach John Fox replaced Orton with second year QB Tim Tebow.  This was a brilliant adjustment for this game based on the problems that Denver was having.  When you have receivers that can't get open then you need a QB that can escape the pass rush.  Tebow is that QB and that is the reason he was chosen to replace Orton over Brady Quinn.  Tebow wasn't put in to complete passes, though that would have been a nice bonus.  He was there to scramble and make San Diego pay for their great coverage on the Bronco receivers.  This was brilliant because San Diego didn't game plan for Tebow.  They weren't ready for scrambling ability and due to the small sample of plays they were able to see in the third quarter, the Chargers weren't able to adjust much to the new look offense in the fourth quarter.  For this week, Tebow was the right choice to play in the second half.

With that said, the spark that Tebow brought to the offense in the fourth quarter can't be mistaken for great play or a good reason to replace Orton for the season.  Tebow completed only 4 of his 10 passes.  That is 6% less than Orton and one of his completions was a circus catch on a poorly thrown ball to Brandon Lloyd while another was a ball thrown to a wide open receiver in the middle of the field on the last drive when the Chargers were in their umbrella coverage.  Tebow's one TD was a beautifully timed and executed screen play where Tebow threw the ball about 5 yards.  He played his role in the play but it's not like he hit a receiver running down the seem for a score, the line and RB did most of that work.  Tebow also bobbled 3 snaps from under center which is an unacceptable number in a game let alone a half.  He was able to run effectively and scramble for extra yards which in this situation is what the team needed.

Going forward I am sure we are going to see quite a bit of Tim Tebow and more than likely he will be named the starter for the next game on Tuesday.  Should we expect the same spark and production from Tebow for the rest of the season?  Yes and no.  He is exciting so the "spark" will be there.  Unfortunately for the Broncos his shortcomings are going to drastically limit what the team can do offensively, especially in the running game.  His inability to cleanly and consistently receive the snap from the center is going to kill a lot of what Fox is trying to build in the running game.  Most running plays start with that exchange and develop from that spot.  Tebow, right now, can't be trusted to handle that exchange safely so he will spend more time in the shotgun where is much more comfortable.  That means that the broncos can't run as much of their I formation sets and pound the ball like they want to.  Running the ball out of the shotgun isn't as affective because of the spread nature of the offense and lack of a lead blocker.  Tebow can run the ball out of the shotgun, but he isn't so fast or powerful that I see him being overly effective in that capacity against a team that has a week to game plan against it.  Throwing the ball is the same old story for Tebow.  He is inaccurate, has a long delivery, and inexperienced reading defenses in a professional fashion. 

I agree with the move to change QB's and, even though Brady Quinn is a better QB, Tebow is paid a lot more and Denver needs to see if he has the potential at this point to be the future for the Broncos.  The fans have finally gotten what they wanted here in Denver and I just hope that their overblown expectations don't ruin a promising young players career. He's not going to be great and the offense will still look bad with him under center, but that won't all be on him.  When he only wins 3 games for the rest of the season the fans just need to remember that he is the one they wanted and that you get what you deserve.  

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