Miami Dolphins Are No Pushovers

Last week I called that the Broncos were going to beat the Miami Dolphins no matter who the QB was playing them.  Miami blew a 15 point lead with just over 5 minutes left in the game to allow Denver the victory in overtime.  This week I picked the NFC East leading New York Giants to win easily over the o-6 Dolphins.  It took 3 and 1/2 quarters for the Giants to get a lead in the game.  I keep expecting the Dolphins to loose just because, well, that's what they do, but they hardly make it easy.

The Dolphins have lost by 14 points or more in 2 of their 7 games this season.  Every other loss is 10 points or less.  10 points isn't a large margin of victory in the NFL these days.  With offenses throwing the ball more often and with better results around the league, it is possible to make up 10 points in a small amount of time.  Just ask the Broncos from last week.  They came back from 15 points down with just over 5 minutes left in the game.  So, when you look at all of their games, you can see that the Dolphins have been in most of them.  If just a few more things go their way then they would probably have 1 or 4 wins on their record instead of the zero that plagues them.

The problem with the Dolphins this season has been consistency.  Against the Giants today the Dolphins owned the first half.  The passing game was clicking when the running game got off to a slow start and eventually the Reggie Bush found a way to get his second 100+ yard rushing game of his career, most of which came in the first half.  The Dolphins scored 14 points in the first half and lead by 11 points until the Giants scored a TD in their 2 minute drill right before the half.  The Dolphins started the 3rd quarter much like the first 2 but were kept out of the endzone and forced to settle for a feildgaol.  That was the end of the offense for Miami. 

I don't know what happened to stall the offensive show that the Dolphins had going, but it came to an abrupt stop.  Moore couldn't avoid the pass rush of the Giants for the last 1 and 1/2 quarters of play.  The running game faltered and it appeared as though the receivers just couldn't get the separation that they did earlier in the game.  There were no turnovers in the game until an interception was thrown on a 4th and 28 situation with just under 2 minutes left in the game.  The Giants seemed to flip a switch and took control of the game in the 4th quarter.  Even after the Giants scored the go ahead TD, the Dolphins never appeared to quit, they just couldn't get the spark back that they had earlier.

I can't say that the problem is the QB in Miami.  It seems to me that they just can't put everything together at the same time for 60 minutes.  Most of the time they are in games and then something goes wrong for a period of time and the team can't recover.  It doesn't snowball or get out of hand, but they just can't afford to make any mistakes if they are going to win.  It isn't for lack of trying and coach Tony Sparano was quick to point that out after the game. 

There are problems in Miami, but I'm surprised that effort hasn't been one of them.  Coach Sparano won't be the Dolphins' coach after this season.  That was known when the organization decided to interview Jim Harbaugh last season while Sparano was still under contract and hadn't been fired.  With that kind of endorsement and long term commitment to their head coach I'm surprised that the locker room hasn't given up on him as well.  I can't sit here and tell you that coaching has nothing to do with the problems in Miami, but it is impressive how that team competes for themselves and their coach.  I hope that Sparano gets another shot somewhere else and gets the same effort out of that team with more wins to show for it. 

Miami is currently winless, but with the way they are playing, and Matt Moore becoming more comfortable in the starting role, I don't think it will last past this week.  I am calling it right now.  Miami will beat the Chiefs in their next game and then the Redskins after that.

More Concerned With Tebow After Comeback Win

I was originally going to write a simple player evaluation on Tim Tebow's performance, but all of the garbage coming out of Denver is forcing my hand.  I have the ability to look at the situation objectively and stay away from the bandwagon that has run through the local media.  Tim Tebow played 54 minutes of terrible football, 54 minutes out of 60.  For 6 minutes of average play he is on the front page of the Denver Post as "Tim-tastic".  The perception of this player needs to change when it comes to on the field play.

Woody Paige of the Denver Post was on ESPN today blaming the offensive coordinator for Tebow's lack luster 54 minutes of ineffectiveness.  He claims that the game plan was too conservative and didn't allow Tebow to sit back and throw the ball like he did in the last 6 minutes.  He said that the game plan reflected a coach that didn't have any confidence in his QB to complete passes.  I agree with the second statement.  Why should he have confidence in him?  He doesn't show you anything in practice and then you just have to trust it will be there in a game?  Then in the game he he shows you everything he did in practice for 54 minutes.  Where is the confidence supposed to come from? 

Lets look at the game as a whole.  Tebow was 13 for 27 with 161 yards through the air and 2 TD's.  Is there anything special about completing 48% of your passes?  It impresses me a little because up until the last 6 minutes it was 33%.  He was 5 for 15.  Of the 27 passes that Tebow threw, 12 were accurate.  So, he completed 48% of his passes when he threw only 44% of his passes accurately.  I need to point out that inaccurate passes aren't just uncatchable balls, but can be passes that are thrown outside of an area that gives the wide receiver the best chance to catch the ball and then do something with it if possible.  Tebow threw 15 inaccurate passes and most of them were uncatchable. 

The 2 TD's are the only thing in the stats that can be praised, but in reality, neither throw was very good.  The first TD was thrown to a wide open receiver and the ball was to far in front of the receiver and low.  Thomas had to dive for the ball and barely made the catch (I actually think he trapped it against the ground but there isn't enough evidence to prove it).  The second TD was a TE screen  that Tebow lofted to Fells who then did the rest by scoring from about 5 yards out.  Tebow's ball stayed in the air so long that Fells had to wait for the ball and the defense was given time to react.  Instead of an easy walk in TD, Fells had to fight through a tackle at the goalline in order to score. 

Tebow, the most mobile of the Denver QB's, was sacked 7 times against Miami.  Miami had 8 sacks in all their other games combined.  Tebow did have 47 yards from scrambling though so I guess that means something.  I noticed some things in the game yesterday though that is cause for concern when he does scramble.  If Tebow gets pressure from his right he tends to spin out of it to his right.  He doesn't slide to the left or step up in the pocket, for the most part he tries to spin towards the pressure in an attempt to escape.  This takes his eyes away from his receivers and leads to him getting in more trouble or running as soon as he turns around again.  Another thing is when he doesn't spin he tends to sprint towards the line of scrimmage instead of working towards a sideline with the hopes of completing a pass.  He doesn't give himself a chance to see the field before he has to take off and run and at times he doesn't realize where he is on the field with respect to the line of scrimmage.  One time during the game yesterday he was 4 yards past the line of scrimmage and looking to throw the ball.  He didn't, but if he thought he had an open receiver he would have.  The last issue I saw was Tebow's lack of protecting the ball when he is running around.  The ball is typically held with one hand and away from his body.  Eventually this will turn into fumbles

Tebow also has some throwing issues while scrambling and from the pocket besides his well documented poor fundamentals.  When Tebow is scrambling the ball is held in his throwing hand, but it isn't in a ready position to throw.  He holds the ball low instead of high and isn't protected by his other hand.  When it comes time to throw he has to bring the ball to his ready position and then go through his elongated motion.  Tebow missed a receiver that was no more than 10 yards right in front of him while running to his left.  He missed this receiver by throwing the ball 7 feet over his head because instead of throwing the ball, Tebow flicked it to the receiver.  In the pocket it was evident on several throws that Tebow wasn't sure where to throw the ball at first.  He hesitated and pumped the ball several times during the game in a manner that showed confusion instead of intent to deceive.  While doing this Tebow kept the ball far away from his body for an extended period of time leaving it exposed to being stripped and the balls he threw after doing it were terrible.

I will admit that the last 6 minutes for Tebow were a lot better than the first 54, but better isn't great.  Even when everything was clicking for the Denver Broncos Tebow wasn't amazing.  For the most part he was hitting wide open receivers in the middle of the field.  He had 1 really good throw and 1 truly great throw.  Like I said earlier, neither of the TD passes were spectacular and the 2 point conversion that he ran in was one of the worst defensive plays I've ever seen.  Was he good for the 6 minute and did what he needed to to win? Yes.

The one thing I think everyone has forgotten about yesterday's "amazing" comeback win is who it was against.  Miami is the second worst team in the league and for 54 minutes they looked better than the Broncos.  What makes anybody think that playing that poorly for 54 minutes would have turned into a win against any other team in the league besides the Colts?  If Tebow has only 2 yards of net passing through 3 quarters in any of his remaining games then it won't matter how well he plays in the last 5 minutes.

So far this year Tim Tebow has played in 6 quarters.  Of those six he hasn't even played well for a full 2 quarters.  If he can't find a way to be consistently average then the Broncos won't win another game this season.  As of right now, with the evidence over a game and a half, I have the Broncos winning 1 more game this season.  It will be the last game of the season against the Chiefs and it will only happen if Tebow gets better.  Stop praising mediocrity Denver and call it like it is, a comeback win against a team you should have beaten with ease. 

Revis's Interception Return Was Legit

On Monday Night Football last week Darrelle Revis intercepted a pass intended for Brandon Marshall on the goal line and returned it 100 yards for a TD.  At the time I though nothing more than, wow, nice play.  The catch was simple and the return didn't have any great moves or theatrics, but it was long and scored points.  I was shocked to hear Jon Gruden mention a missed pass interference call on Revis at the time, even after the slow motion replays, but I'm even more dumbfounded that analyst after the game were saying a flag should have been thrown on the play.  Since when is standing your ground a penalty?
The NFL is an offense powered league and the rules make playing defense very difficult.  Defenders aren't allowed to jam a receiver past 5 yards from the line of scrimmage.  Defensive backs can't make contact with a receiver past that 5 yard boundary.  Defenders aren't allowed to face guard a receiver while attempting to locate and catch a pass (face guarding is placing your hand in front of the face in order to restrict ones vision).  Defenders aren't allowed to grab or impede a receivers progress on a route by stepping in the path of a receiver and slowing them down without bumping or holding.  With rules this restrictive, and called more often than not, it is amazing to me that anyone can be a defensive back in the NFL and be effective on a consistent basis.  Revis is one of, if not the best in the game and his interception was clean.

The play in question starts with Revis manned up on Marshall.  At the snap Marshall avoids the jam from Revis by using an outside release and slapping his hands away.  Marshall is actually trying to run an inside route and wants Revis to overreact to the outside move and give him a clear window to get back inside.  Revis didn't bite on the outside pattern and was in great position when Marshall tried to come back inside.  Marshall didn't make good contact with his attempt to slap the hands of Revis away from his body and it caused Marshall to be off balance when he tried to get back inside.  Marshall was counting on Revis being more aggressive at the line allowing Marshall to actually grab Revis on the shoulder to get the inside leverage he needed on the play.  Since Revis played loose on the play Marshall wasn't able to plant solidly on his outside foot to come back to the inside.  This caused Marshall to stumble on that break and initiate contact with Revis.  As Marshall is falling into Revis there was contact between the 2 and a slight grab at Marshall by Revis.  This contact and "hold" on Marshall's jersey  were the only reason Marshall didn't fall flat on his face.  Then Matt Moore threw a terrible ball and the rest is history.

I hate it when people who are supposed to know this game better than anyone else watching blow an analysis that should set them apart from the rest of us.  Jon Gruden was right to say that he thought Revis got away with pass interference until after he saw the replay.  The replay clearly shows that Marshall initiated the contact with Revis and did so by running a terrible route.  Trent Dilfer then backed up Gruden's call during the half time show.  What video are these guys watching?  Revis got run into.  Though that has been called pass interference before, it isn't and it was a great no call by the official.  A missed call would have been throwing the flag and negating the interception.

Busy Trade Deadline for the AFC West

The last few days have been very active for the NFL compared to past trading deadlines.  There have been a few major deals and some smaller transactions.  The division that has been the most active is the AFC West.  This division has spawned 3 trades in the last few days and 2 of them were game changers.

Those of us who live in Denver are well aware of the Broncos trade of Brandon Lloyd and the fact that Eddie Royal and other WR's were actively being shopped around the league.  Lloyd's trade the the St. Luis Rams was the broncos way of telling the world that they are in a full blown rebuilding stage.  Tim Tebow is taking over a QB for the rest of the year to see what he can do and be evaluated for the future he may or may not have here in Denver.  Lloyd was traded for a conditional late round draft pick and Eddie Royal was being shopped for a similar pick.  That means the Broncos are going to try and build a team through the draft and are willing to give up on some decent talent in order to bring in new blood.

The Raiders are a the other team that made a splash in the division at the deadline.  On the 13th of October the Raiders acquired LB Arron Curry from the Seattle Seahawks.  Curry was the 4th overall pick in the draft 3 years ago and had 73 tackles last season along with 3.5 sacks and 2 forced fumbles.  He has proven to be a solid LB in the NFL and now calls Oakland home.  This is a trade that symbolizes a team in the ready position to win now.  The Raiders made this move because they are already very good on defense but Curry makes them just a little better and more consistent.

Then Jason Campbell broke his collar bone in his game on Sunday.  A Raiders  team that was poised to make a run at the division title or at least a wild card spot had to rely on the backup Kyle Boller to get them to where they want to be.  That is until yesterday when the Raiders made the decision that they can win now with the right QB.  The right QB is Carson Palmer, formerly of the Cincinnati Bengals.  Palmer was retired due to his dysfunctional relationship with his former team and not because he couldn't or didn't want to play.  The Bengals refused to trade Palmer simply because he asked to be traded and the Bengals don't give in to player demands.  So, how did Palmer wind up in Oakland?  Simple, the Bengals aren't stupid.  They didn't make a deal to get rid of a disgruntled player, they accepted a deal that gave them 2 1st round draft picks (potentially) over 2 years.  Now, if Palmer can get into shape soon enough, the Raiders are even better then they were with Campbell.

The AFC West made some significant moves before the trade deadline in which one team started its rebuilding strategy and the other got significantly better.  The trading deadline for the NFL is typically very dull, but thankfully this year it gave us something to talk about.  Now we can sit back for the rest of the season and see how these trades worked out, or in the Broncos case we'll see next year.

Broncos Begin to Rebuild

Earlier today the Denver Broncos traded their #1 wide receiver to the St. Luis Rams.  Brandon Lloyd, who has spent 2 years with Broncos, was apparently worth only a 6th round pick to the team as they sent him to St. Luis.  This doesn't sound like a good deal for the Broncos, but if we look a little closer to the situation then we can see why this deal was made.

Since the beginning of the camp this year Denver has been in the middle of a QB controversy regarding Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow.  Tebow owned Orton when it came to public opinion and Orton owned Tebow in everything that mattered to a football team.  Proof of that is in the comments made by Brandon Lloyd during the preseason and several times during the regular season.  Lloyd wanted Orton and it is very possible that he still does.  Orton didn't loose his job because Tebow is a better QB and Lloyd knows that.  Orton was replaced because the team is not going to make the playoffs again this season and the organization needs to see what Tebow can do over an extended period of time.  I doubt Lloyd was happy about the move and probably has made his concerns known to the coaching staff. 

What concerns could Lloyd have?  He is in the last year of his contract and in order to get paid the way he would like to, he needs to have another Pro Bowl year.  I doubt that would happen with a second year QB with major mechanical problems and who tends to be inaccurate.  Lloyd is also not targeted as much in the new offense that Coach Fox has implemented.  The combination of less opportunities along with less quality opportunities had to make Lloyd uneasy about his future contract.

The contract also plays a role on the management side of this deal as well.  With Lloyd going to the Pro Bowl last season and having a fairly productive year right now, it makes since that he would be asking for a large sum of money come the off-season.  The Broncos have openly said that they would not pay him what he was going to want so it also makes since for the Broncos to get another piece to build the future with.  Trading Lloyd gets the Broncos either a 5th or 6th round pick in next years draft depending on how well Lloyd plays for the Rams this season.  When you are rebuilding, like the Broncos are, you need to get draft picks to build depth and fill starting roles.  So, if you know you aren't going to keep a player after their contract is up then why not put yourself in a position to get better in the draft.

Lloyd may not be the only wide receiver that the Broncos say goodbye to this week.  It is rumored that Eddie Royal is also being shopped around the league.  Royal has been injured for most of this season and when he has played his impact has been negligible.  Royal hasn't been able to regain the form he had in his rookie year.  In the last 3 years he hasn't been able to come within 30 catches and 300 yards of his rookie season.  Now the offense has had a dramatic overhaul and Royal doesn't fit the philosophy of a run first offense.  The Broncos are looking for larger receivers and aren't going to be spending much time in the spread offense where a smaller receiver like Royal would be better suited.  So, the Broncos would love to get yet another draft pick for a receiver that no longer fits into the future plans of the organization.

The Broncos are rebuilding.  These 2 players won't be the last to be shipped out of Denver before next season.  The Defense is poised for a major overhaul is their play doesn't get noticeably better.  It is possible that the Broncos will start next season with 3 QB's that weren't on the roster this season.  In fact, unless Tebow shows a great deal of growth and improvement as a QB then I will promise you none of these guys will be back but 2 of them will be starters somewhere else.  I wouldn't be surprised to see 1 or more running backs move on as well.  If you're a Bronco fan, just know that this is coming and that it is a good thing moving forward.  You need patients to see the changes through and understand that while things will be bad now, things will get better very soon.

Orton Being Turned Into Scapegoat

Picture from broncotalk.net

I have been a resident of Denver for more than a decade and I have seen some QB treated very poorly and seen one career ended by this city.  The fans, sports casters, and coaches have not handled the post Elway era well at all.  Today, the Broncos switched QB's because of the team's poor record and the fact that they have an overpaid QB on the roster that fans love and want to see.  That's fine, I get it.  Drew Soicher saying that they made the change because of Kyle Orton's terrible play is just ignorant and wrong.  The worst part is that Soicher isn't the only one who feels that way and Orton's reputation is going to take a hit because of it.

I'm not going to say that Orton was having a career year and shouldn't have been demoted.  I agree with the timing due to the circumstances, but I can't put the poor record of the Broncos purely on Orton's shoulders.  He threw to many interceptions this so far this season.  The pick he threw on Sunday was particularly bad, but what about his other stats?  He still had 8 TD's this season and was averaging more than 200 yards passing a game, though I'm not sure if he finished the game on Sunday that stat would still be true.  Before Sunday's game he was completing just over 60% of his passes which would be a career high for him.  Let's not forget that the receivers have not been healthy all season either.  In one game Tim Tebow played receiver and Orton still has managed to get better every game when it comes to completing passes.  Orton isn't to blame for the Broncos poor overall performance. 

I wonder how many of the fans and sportscasters know that the defense is still ranked in the in the bottom third of the league.  The defense allows almost 400 yards of offense by opponents per game.  the defense also allows 28 points per game as well.  In the first 4 games the Broncos scored 20.25 points per game.  That's not great, but it should win more games then it looses.  I feel like I should also point out that besides the game against the defending Super Bowl Champion Packers, the Broncos were in every game they played.  It isn't like the team was getting blown out or embarrassed.  They were getting better every week, Orton included.

Then the Chargers came to town and the offense looked bad again.  Did everyone forget that the Chargers were ranked first in defense and offense last year?  Or did they forget that they are the best team in the division?  I didn't.  I'll tell you something that I didn't know about the the Chargers; their defensive backs are much better than the Broncos receivers.  If you want to blame someone for the poor stats that Orton had in the game on Sunday (besides the INT) they are the ones to to take the blame.  Orton completed less than 50% of his passes because more than 50% of the time there was no one open.  Orton, being the smart QB that he is, isn't going to make a bad situation worse by forcing balls into bad spots.  That is why his yardage was so poor, he was hitting the check downs because that was his only option.  Proof of the fact that the receivers weren't open is Tebow's 2 completions in the second half before the final drive against umbrella coverage. 

I can't stand the politics involved in playing QB in this city.  A player who has been very good during his stay here and getting better every year has just been run out of town for a player that is 2 years from being ready to play in the pros.  That's sad because he will be run out of town at the end of the season because he won't win more than 3 or 4 games.  Miami and Kansas City (twice) are the only teams left on the schedule that the Broncos should beat.  Minnesota has Adrian Peterson and the Vikings seemed to just realize that too so I don't see that game going well for the Broncos.  Everyone else on the schedule is vastly better than the Broncos.

So, if the Broncos go 4-12 again this season, like I believe they will, will the fans and sportscasters treat Tebow like they did Orton?  If Tebow goes 4-10 as a starter, meaning 3-8 this season, will it be time to go in another direction and blame the QB for yet another failed season?  Probably, because that is what they did to Griese, Plummer and now Orton. 

Denver Needs to Evaluate Tebow Properly

Image from speculativesports.com

I need to start by saying that I didn't watch the entire game between the San Diego Chargers and Denver Broncos on Sunday afternoon.  When I was watching, I noticed a Denver offense that was very much in a state of ineffectiveness.  I saw a defense that was playing hard and making some plays.  I turned the game off before half and only turned it back on once I saw that Denver was making a comeback.  Once the game was back on I was amazed to see Tim Tebow at the helm and leading the broncos down the field.  I will take you through the comeback and why it was able to happen and then focus on what the Broncos need to focus on for the rest of the season when evaluating their soon to be starter, Tim Tebow.

After 5 games the Broncos are 1-4 and have virtually played themselves out of the playoffs already.  For that reason alone I am feel that the move about to be made at QB is appropriate.  If anyone says that the reason for switching QB's is solely due to Orton's lack of production, especially against the Chargers, then they would be flat out wrong.  Orton wasn't the problem in Sunday's game, the receivers were.  Like I said, I didn't watch the entire game, but I did see a clip where the commentator showed replays from 3 different pass plays.  He showed those plays specifically because they were prime examples of Orton having no one, and I mean no one to throw too.  Orton went 6-13 (46%) in the first half when his receivers were covered extremely well.  I will say that the interception he threw on the first series was a terrible decision followed by awful execution.  The Broncos offense had scored 3 points in the half and the game was getting out of reach based on their production to that point. 

In the second half coach John Fox replaced Orton with second year QB Tim Tebow.  This was a brilliant adjustment for this game based on the problems that Denver was having.  When you have receivers that can't get open then you need a QB that can escape the pass rush.  Tebow is that QB and that is the reason he was chosen to replace Orton over Brady Quinn.  Tebow wasn't put in to complete passes, though that would have been a nice bonus.  He was there to scramble and make San Diego pay for their great coverage on the Bronco receivers.  This was brilliant because San Diego didn't game plan for Tebow.  They weren't ready for scrambling ability and due to the small sample of plays they were able to see in the third quarter, the Chargers weren't able to adjust much to the new look offense in the fourth quarter.  For this week, Tebow was the right choice to play in the second half.

With that said, the spark that Tebow brought to the offense in the fourth quarter can't be mistaken for great play or a good reason to replace Orton for the season.  Tebow completed only 4 of his 10 passes.  That is 6% less than Orton and one of his completions was a circus catch on a poorly thrown ball to Brandon Lloyd while another was a ball thrown to a wide open receiver in the middle of the field on the last drive when the Chargers were in their umbrella coverage.  Tebow's one TD was a beautifully timed and executed screen play where Tebow threw the ball about 5 yards.  He played his role in the play but it's not like he hit a receiver running down the seem for a score, the line and RB did most of that work.  Tebow also bobbled 3 snaps from under center which is an unacceptable number in a game let alone a half.  He was able to run effectively and scramble for extra yards which in this situation is what the team needed.

Going forward I am sure we are going to see quite a bit of Tim Tebow and more than likely he will be named the starter for the next game on Tuesday.  Should we expect the same spark and production from Tebow for the rest of the season?  Yes and no.  He is exciting so the "spark" will be there.  Unfortunately for the Broncos his shortcomings are going to drastically limit what the team can do offensively, especially in the running game.  His inability to cleanly and consistently receive the snap from the center is going to kill a lot of what Fox is trying to build in the running game.  Most running plays start with that exchange and develop from that spot.  Tebow, right now, can't be trusted to handle that exchange safely so he will spend more time in the shotgun where is much more comfortable.  That means that the broncos can't run as much of their I formation sets and pound the ball like they want to.  Running the ball out of the shotgun isn't as affective because of the spread nature of the offense and lack of a lead blocker.  Tebow can run the ball out of the shotgun, but he isn't so fast or powerful that I see him being overly effective in that capacity against a team that has a week to game plan against it.  Throwing the ball is the same old story for Tebow.  He is inaccurate, has a long delivery, and inexperienced reading defenses in a professional fashion. 

I agree with the move to change QB's and, even though Brady Quinn is a better QB, Tebow is paid a lot more and Denver needs to see if he has the potential at this point to be the future for the Broncos.  The fans have finally gotten what they wanted here in Denver and I just hope that their overblown expectations don't ruin a promising young players career. He's not going to be great and the offense will still look bad with him under center, but that won't all be on him.  When he only wins 3 games for the rest of the season the fans just need to remember that he is the one they wanted and that you get what you deserve.  

The NFL is One Wild Ride

For as long as I can remember I have always loved the NFL.  Football is the greatest game on the planet and it is also the best run sports organization in the country.  Form year to year the game changes and so do the teams.  That is what makes it great; we never know what to expect.  This year is no different and so far it has been a pleasant surprise.

There are 8 different divisions within 2 conferences in the NFL and right now there are 4 division leaders that most people wouldn't have been picked to be there before the season started.  In the NFC there are the Washington Redskins in the East and the Detroit Lions in the North that have stunned the sporting world.  Everyone knew that the Detroit Lions were going to be better than they were in years past with a much improved defense and a QB in Stafford, that if health, has shown flashes of greatness.  I don't think anyone thought that they would be undefeated and tied for the division lead with the Green Bay Packers.  The Redskins are also tied for the division lead with the New York Giants, but currently hold the tie breaker since the beat the Giants in week one.  With Rex Grossman as the QB I know I thought that he would prove that he hadn't changed from his old hot and cold self.  So far he has been steady, but I'm still not convinced that he won't revert to locking on a receiver and throw the ball into triple coverage.  Until that happens though the Redskins are looking good in the East with Dallas and Philly continually self destructing.

The AFC has produced the Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans.  Buffalo has had a few descent seasons over the last few years but they have never showed the ability to get over the hump.  Then this year they not only beat the New England Patriots, but did it by overcoming a 20+ point deficit.  I want to say that the road to the AFC East goes through Buffalo now, but Tom Brady threw 4 interceptions in that game to get the Bills back in it and last week they lost to the lackluster Cincinnati Bengals.  The Titans had a terrible year last year and with a new coaching staff and a new QB in Matt Hasselbeck no one thought that they would be as good as Houston.

The NFC West is a small surprise to many at this stage.  Everyone knew that this division was going to be bad again, and they are, but they have flipped the order from last year.  Coming into this season many thought that Seattle and St. Luis would be battling for the division lead since last year Seattle won the division and St. Luis had a lot of talent that was very young and performing well.  Instead, the 2 teams have one win between them and haven't looked good in any of their games.  The 49er's, however, have won 3 out of 4 games and just finished an impressive comeback win against the NFC East preseason favorite Philadelphia Eagles.

There are some great stats to go along with this exciting season.  The team with the highest point differential for the season is Baltimore.  They have manage to outscore their opponents by 62 points over the first 4 games.  Detroit is second with a 59 point differential.  on the other end of the spectrum is the St. Luis Rams.  They have been outscored by 67 points in their games and that isn't even the worst differential in the league.  Kansas City, last year's AFC West champions, have a 77 point deficit over the first 4 games.  That means that they are loosing their games by almost 20 points each week.  Arizona and Philadelphia have a -1 and 0  point differential on the season and are the only teams with a point differential of -10 or higher without a winning record. 

For the rest of the season I am interested to see how the landscape will change.  Who is going to come from the back of the pack to win a division or at least a wild card?  How many more double digit leads are going to be surrendered this season?  Who is going to establish themselves as the elite teams in both conferences?  I love this game because we are a quarter of the way through the season and there are many more questions to talk about and only opinions to answer them for weeks to come.  What do you think will happen?