The Nuggets Aren't Done Yet

I have watched the Nuggets play the Thunder in games 1 and 3 of their NBA playoff series and have done so in agony. Watching a team play better than its’ opponent and loose games is excruciatingly painful to me. Game 2 was an abnormality and a terrible defensive effort on the part of the Nuggets so I won’t use that game in this argument. The team needs to do 3 things in order to turn the series around: eliminate half of their turnovers, better shot selection and, most importantly, hit 70-75% of their free throws.

In the 2 games I have been able to watch the Nuggets have done a poor job of protecting the ball. They have 23 turnovers in the 2 games and many of them are unforced turnovers. An unforced turnover occurs when a player is passing the ball to another player and isn’t being overly pressured in the process. This means that the Nuggets are throwing the ball away or forcing passes into areas that they shouldn’t be going. I can understand a turnover when a player is dribbling and the defender times it right to poke the ball away or if you get trapped in one of the corners and attempt to pass the ball to another player and it gets tipped or the player travels. Running down the court on a break and losing control of the ball is a lack of concentration. Passing the ball behind a sprinting teammate is a terrible lack of execution. When you’re close enough to the basket to dunk and you try to get the one extra pass to a guy less than 5 feet away and covered closely by a defender is just stupid. These are the types of turnover the Nuggets are committing and can be easily reduced.

I have noticed that all the Nuggets have an issue with their shot selection. Kenyan Martin should never be shooting 18 foot jump shots. Trying to finger roll over Ibaka of the Thunder has proven to be a terrible mistake yet I still see Nene, Martin and both point guards continue to try this shot. The Nuggets are shooting just under 26% from the 3 point line in the 2 games I’ve watched. 26% isn’t good yet the Nuggets are still throwing up 20 shots a game from behind the arch. When Denver was having success in the first game they were driving to the basket and then working the ball outside. Now it looks like they are taking the first three they can get instead of working the ball around and attacking the basket. In the last game the Nuggets got all 3 of the Thunders big men into fouls trouble and didn’t take advantage by attacking the basket on every possession. The team, as a whole, needs to be more aggressive to the basket and work the ball to the open man to get a good look at a shot.

Free throws are just that, uncontested shots from 15 feet in front of the basket. The Nuggets are acting like you have to pay for each one you make. In actuality they have paid dearly for each free throw that they have missed. They have missed more than 10 free throws in each of the 2 games I have watched and lost by 3 or less points in those games. In the last game they missed 15 free throws. If they make just 4 more they would win the game. They haven’t shot better than 68% from the line in the series. You have to take advantage of the free throws when you get them, and the Nuggets are letting the Thunder off the hook for fouling them.

If the Nuggets can reduce their turnovers then they will give the Thunder several fewer possessions a game reducing the number of points that they can store. If they slow down in the half court and work the ball safely to the open man and attack the basket then they will increase their shooting percentage and increase the number of points that they can score. If the Nuggets can focus at the line and knock down their free throws then they can add 4 to 7 points a game at the rate that they have been getting fouled. If you put all of that together than the Nuggets become 10 point favorites against the team that has won 3 straight against them. The Nuggets can do it and if they can get the first win tonight and get over the mental wall the Thunder have over them then I really feel that they can make it out of this round and do some real damage in the playoffs.

The Combine's Inability to Assess QB's

After watching the E:60 report on ESPN about QB Tom Brady I starting thinking about NFL Scouting Combine and came to an eye-opening conclusion. The Combine is useless in evaluating QB’s. There are six measurable drills that have nothing to do with playing QB in the NFL and explain why.

I’ll start with the 40 yard dash and bench press drills. The 40 yard dash is a way for scouts to measure a player’s speed. QB’s shouldn’t run a 40 Yard dash. There job is to drop 5 to seven yards behind the offensive line and throw the ball. The only running plays that every team has for their QB’s is the sneak play and the naked boot. Neither play is designed to go far and only one requires the QB to actually get up to full speed. The bench press is almost as useless for QB’s. The bench press is a measure of a players upper body strength which by that definition seems to be an important tool for evaluating a QB but the bench press is a pushing motion drill not a throwing motion drill. The bench press is a drill that is best suited for linemen.

The 2 jumping drills make a little more sense for QB’s because they can show a player’s explosiveness in the legs and hips but when you break down the motions you can see that they really have nothing to do with the QB position. The vertical jump has no practical application to playing QB. QB’s don’t jump to throw ball very often it if they do it is normally off of one leg while running. The broad jump translates well with tackling not throwing so once again what is the point of putting QB’s through it?

The shuttle run is a drill designed to show one’s ability to change directions laterally. You have to run 5 yards to the right then 10yards to the left and then 5 more yards to the right to finish the drill. Granted I have seen a few QB’s try and scramble in a similar pattern, but it’s not quite the same thing. The 3 cone drill is a joke when it comes to assessing a QB’s talent. Zig-zagging around cones, at least in that fashion, is not something that is asked of a professional QB. 6 drills and not one of them can be used to judge the potential of a QB prospect, yet the combine has risen the draft stock of several players over the years.

Assessing college QB’s should be done primarily through watching film and talking with coaches. On film you can see exactly what you are going to get on the field. You can see if a kid can read defenses or just picks a receiver and throws the ball. Most importantly you can see what a kid can’t do to this point in his career. If a college QB worked completely out of the shotgun then you know that he hadn’t taken a snap from under center in about 4 years. If there is a glitch in a prospects throwing motion then you will see it on film. The biggest thing you get to see is how a prospect reacts when things don’t work out as planned. None of these things can be realized at the combine.

Anything that the prospect shows you at the Combine is practiced and rehearsed for the Combine and can’t always be trusted to show up on a professional field. Tim Tebow is a perfect example of this. He took drops at the Combine; he threw with the perfect pro form at the combine and tested very well in the measurable drills also. He gets to a game and he is in the shotgun running the wildcat and still throwing with the same motion as college. JaMarcus Russell showed that he was an athletic freak at the Combine so he was taken as the first pick. The Raiders never looked at the film of him playing. If they did they would have seen a man that was unable to read defenses, wasn’t a very accurate thrower, and only had one good season at LSU.

The Combine is a joke when it comes to assessing QB’s and shouldn’t be used in the decision making process. The most important things for QB’s can’t be measured and can’t be tested in one day with a stop watch. The intangibles like leadership, intelligence, and heart are more important to the future development of a QB than the bench press and 40yard dash times. Watch the film, do the interviews, and use former coaches as tools for assessing QB’s and leave the Combine to the athletes it can actually be useful for.

March Really was Madness

Ever since selection Sunday this year’s NCAA Tournament has been nothing but entertaining. We had controversy in selection. There were many very close games that came down to the final seconds. We experienced more upsets than I think we had ever seen. Even the women’s Tournament has been exciting.

It started with the debate over who should have been in verses who was actually selected. Teams that were more deserving than others were left out of the tournament for reasons that still can’t be explained. I stand by my opinion of UAB and especially VCU. They didn’t belong in the tournament over teams like CU and Alabama. I know VCU made it to the Final Four and that for some people that justifies their entry into the tournament, but not for me. Going to the Final Four doesn’t improve their resume from the regular season and I still feel they didn’t earn it. Once in the tournament though you have to earn every additional game and VCU did that. Whether I think they should have been there or not is irrelevant. They made it and once they were there they earned everything that they got. They deserved to be in the Final Four because they beat every team that was put in front of them.

VCU wasn’t the only team to produce major upsets. Richmond and Morehead State were big shockers beating Vanderbilt and Louisville. Gonzaga took out St. Johns while Butler started its’ second run at a national championship by beating the likes of Wisconsin, Florida, and Pittsburg. Marquette made it to the Elite 8 as an 11 seed. For the first time, I think ever, there wasn’t a single 1 seed in the Final Four. There is such a great level of parity within college basketball right now that it has made for a very exciting few weeks with the possibility of all of these upsets.

The women’s tournament has been much of the same. There were 3 teams that everyone debated would win the national title this year: UConn, Baylor, and Stanford. UConn was the overall favorite but Baylor had an almost 7 foot super star, Brittany Griner, that people thought could give UConn trouble. Stanford was also seen as a potential problem for UConn seeing as that the Cardinal had beaten the Huskies earlier this year (it was UConn’s only loss of the past 2 seasons). Mya Moore of the Huskies is going to go down as one of the sports all time greats and has lost only 3 times in her career going into the tournament this year. Now she has lost 4 times. UConn lost to Notre Dame last night and will go to the women’s final on Tuesday. Baylor didn’t even make the Final Four and Stanford lost to Texas A&M, who beat Baylor, in the Final Four. The Sports world is a little stunned but like me they are now interested in seeing the finals between Texas A&M and Notre Dame (Go Irish).

I’m not a huge fan of college basketball. I watch UNC versus Duke every year and lately I watch all things Notre Dame, but other than that I don’t really get into it. The NCAA Tournament is always fun and I fill out a bracket every year, but this year I have watched more tournament games than ever before. The games were close and you couldn’t predict who was going to win before the games started and most of the time you couldn’t even pick a winner at the half. I love watching good exciting basketball and this year’s March Madness has lived up to its’ name.