It's Official.. I'm a Hater!

I have been reluctant to hop on the Tebow bandwagon here in Denver ever since it started rolling and was powered by arguments like "he wins games".  I predicted that he wouldn't win more than 2 games as the starter after his performance against the Dolphins.  The Broncos have gone on to win all but 1 of their games with him at the helm and have made me look increasingly bad along the way.  I'm here to tell you now that I am staying the course.  After spending the better part of 3 hours watching every offensive play from Sunday's game I am still not convinced that Tebow can play consistently enough to be a long term starter in the NFL.

Going back to the preseason there were issues that needed to be addressed in Tebow's fundamentals that would allow him to be more successful as a passer in the NFL.  After watching him play in his 8th game of the season and 14 weeks from where the issues were spotted I haven't seen enough of an improvement in several of those areas to suggest to me that a change is coming.  The issues that I'm talking about are footwork, throwing motion, decision making and being able to read the defenses in the pros.  I have since been told by many experts and analyst that the throwing motion will never change so there is no reason to even try and fix it.  In that case we can expect a certain number of balls to go a rye every now and then and strip sacks to be part of Tebow's future.  That still leaves 3 major issues that need to be addressed ant to this point haven't.

Footwork with a good throwing motion is important to get your body lined up for the throw and to help with the overall execution of the throw.  If your throwing motion is an issue then the footwork becomes that much more important.  There were at least 6 instances where I saw poor footwork on Sunday.  It started very early with a play action pass in the 1st quarter.  Tebow made the fake hand off and never set his feet after that to throw the ball when he had plenty of time to do so.  The result was an incomplete pass.  His footwork moving to his right is awful.  He looks uncomfortable moving in that direction even when he is shuffling and never sets his feet properly.  On another play action pass with around 8 minutes left in the 2nd quarter, Tebow was taking a 5 step drop while faking a hand off.  It's called a 5 step drop because that is how many steps it is supposed to take to get to the launch point.  It took him 8 steps which caused him to be late to the launch point, late throwing the ball and wound up throwing the ball out of bounds and out of the reach of his receiver.  I saw on several occasions throughout the game when Tebow is throwing to his right that he opens his hips to much.  He is kicking his lead foot across his body, past where it should be to point at the receiver with proper footwork, and looking like he isn't using either leg to drive the ball.  Both times the ball was accurately thrown, but I would figure that 5 out of 10 times that ball flies out in front of the receiver.  He routinely looks uncomfortable in the pocket and that doesn't inspire confidence in me that he will ever get there.

During the course of a game the QB has to make numerous decisions, so many that I'm not even going to guess as to the number.  That is why the decision making of the QB is always brought into question.  Up until Sunday, Tebow had turned the ball over only twice in 7 games.  On Sunday he turned it over twice and actually had 2 other times where a play could have been made on the ball.  Not all turnovers come from bad decisions, but the ones in this game were.  Just under 3 minutes left in the 1st quarter is when Tebow threw his 1 interception.  On that play he made several bad decisions.  He had a good looking pocket when he decided that he had a lane to run and then pulled down the ball and started to take off.  The lane closed and he tried to set back up in the pocket that at this point was collapsing.  Tebow then sprinted to his left with his eyes down field looking for a receiver.  He throws the ball down the sideline forcing a ball into coverage and it was intercepted. Once he was outside the pocket and there were no wide open receivers in the area he should have just thrown the ball away.  He made a similar mistake earlier in the game where it is possible that he was throwing the ball away on a sprin to out to the left, but he threw the ball directly over 2 receivers' heads and into the field of play.  That isn't a smart throw away if it was one.  There are numerous times throughout the game when Tebow appears to have a solid pocket forming around him and he takes off to run for virtually no gain.  He isn't giving himself a chance to see the field and make plays with his arm in those situations and is potentially hurting the team.  With just under 8 minutes left in the game Tebow has a great pocket and sits in it for just over 6 seconds before his is hit by a defender.  After 6 seconds that ball needs to be out of his hand and holding it for that long is a poor decision that eventually led to a strip sack and a turnover.

I will admit that there has been improvement on Tebow's part when it comes to locking on a receiver, but not nearly enough.  You can tell a QB is locked on a receiver when his head doesn't move during a pass play.  There are to many times when Tebow doesn't wind up throwing the ball and running after looking at one receiver for that play.  Reading defenses in the pros means seeing the defenders move and determining if a receiver has the opportunity to get open.  These decisions need to be made quickly and in Tebow's case it is taking around 2.5 to 3 seconds to make the first decision.  For those of you not in the know, you typically don't have more than 3.5 seconds to get the ball out of your hand as a QB.  Tebow is spending most to all of that time on one guy on average.  There were times when I saw him look around to 2 and 3 guys, but it wasn't the norm.  If he can't read quicker then there will be guys getting frustrated running open on most plays and never seeing the ball.  On what could have been a critical drive in the 4th quarter, Tebow spent to much time looking at one receiver running deep down the field and once he finally looked off he didn't have enough time to find a wide open receiver running under the coverage with room to run for a first.  Instead he was barely able to spot a covered receiver and tried to force a ball into him down the field that went out of bounds. 

Protecting the ball is key in this league and though Tebow hasn't turned the ball over much it isn't like he hasn't given teams opportunities.  He has thrown several balls in the last 8 games that should have been picked.  There was a corner route that he threw on Sunday that should have been picked, it wouldn't have counted due to a roughing penalty, but it did hit the DB in the hands.  Whenever Tebow uses a pump fake he fails to get his second hand back on the ball to secure it.  That is how he lost the fumble in the 4th quarter, he pumped and then left the ball low while trying to move to his left and the defender was able to knock it loose.  He has been doing it all season but this was the first time he was exposed for doing it.  Tebow also fumbled in the first half trying to turn out of bounds.  Fortunately for him the ball fell harmlessly out of bounds but there was a chance that ball could have fallen in bounds and turned into a turn over.  So, he could have had 4 potential turnovers instead of the 2 that came to fruition.

I believe Tebow complete 5 passes in the first 3 quarters.  That isn't new and it isn't an improvement from the first game he played, or game number 5.  He is wildly inconsistent and that isn't how you build a long career in the pros.  I understand that there were 4 drops in the game and that does have to factor in, but there were also 3 bad balls that were caught as well so I consider it a wash.  The fist 3 quarters of a game count and until he can consistently play well for all 4 quarters, and not just against a prevent defense in that last 6 minutes, I can't say that he has improved to a point that he should remain the starter.  The defense only gave up 10 points, again, and Tebow was only able to set up 57 and 59 yard field gaols for the game to go into overtime and to win.  Granted he did lead a good drive earlier in the game for a chip shot field goal that was blocked, but in the end he only got them close once.

I have been preaching consistency from the beginning and while there has been some improvement over the last 8 games, it isn't consistent improvement.  He isn't consistent and once these games get into the 4th quarter they are a coin toss.  Like all coin tossing situations you can't win them all.  Eventually the coin will fall for the other team and once that starts to happen, how will all the Tebow supporters react?  My guess is that they will continue to turn a blind eye to the competition that the Broncos have faced and start blaming the defense for giving up to many points.  Whatever the case may be I will remain strong to my principles and preach the same message: In order to win consistently you have to be good over 4 quarters and to this point Tebow hasn't proven he can be good for more than a half of a quarter consistently.

Western Kentucky Screwed Out Of Bowl Bid

There is always a lot of controversy at the end of the college football season.  Division 1 football never get the National Championship right and this year is no different.  Oklahoma State got jobbed and now Alabama, a team that didn't win it's half of the SEC and already lost to LSU, will play LSU for the National title and that isn't even close to biggest blunder for this bowl season.  Western Kentucky University, lead by 12 seniors, will not play in a bowl this year after finishing the season 7-5.  Why is this a bigger travesty?  I'll tell you.

Western Kentucky has only been a division 1-A football program for 3 years in the Sun Belt Conference.  In their first year they didn't win a game, an astounding 0-12.  Last year they won only 2 games.  It was an improvement from the year before, but hardly something to hang your hat on and  definitely nowhere near bowl eligible.  This season the Hilltoppers began the same way they had for the last 2 years, loosing 4 straight, but managed to save their season by winning 7 of their last 8 games and becoming bowl eligible.  It is important to remember that bowl eligible doesn't mean that a team is guaranteed to go to a bowl game.  Ultimately it is up to the bowl committees to determine who they invite to their bowls and the decision rarely has anything to do with being fair, much like the rest of division 1 football. 

14 and 2, these numbers out of context don't mean anything to anyone.  In the context of this bowl season they are unacceptable numbers for WKU.  14 teams that are going to bowl games this year have a worse record than the Hilltoppers.  14 teams without a winning record were rewarded for their play but WKU, which won 2 more games than it lost, has to watch less deserving teams play in a bowl game they should have been invited too.  2 of the teams that are less deserving are from the Sun Belt Conference and finished behind the Hilltoppers in the conference and were teams that they had beaten. How does something like this happen?

College football is as corrupt an organization as you will every see in which the corruption is rarely, if ever, called out.  People will argue that the NCAA is fighting corruption within the programs across the country with sanctions and bans, but they aren't focusing on the corruption that screws more people and programs than anything else.  The bowls still exist for one reason, money.  Money has corrupted the college landscape so badly that San Diego State and Boise State just joined the Big East Conference.  How can 2 teams on the western half of the country be in a conference called the Big East?  The name of the conference doesn't matter anymore, it is simply what that conference can guarantee in revenue and bowl eligibility that determines where teams go.  Over a hundred years of tradition have been craped on in the last 2 years, but the NCAA can't allow the one tradition the personifies college football to continue, paying players.  I think they might have their priorities a little backwards.  If the institutions are selling themselves for money then how can they expect he players not to?

In the case of WKU, the were replaced by teams in order to create "better match ups".  That is a great code for better draws.  I never heard of WKU before today, but I have heard of UCLA, Pitt, Arizona State and Ohio State.  These teams finished the season with 6-6 record or worse but still went to a bowl ahead of WKU.  Who would you rather watch is the question that bowl committee's ask to determine who gets the invites and WKU, though more deserving never got the nod.  College football had 14 opportunities to do the right thing for WKU and failed all 14 times.  Is it sad that we're no longer shocked by that?

Giants' Woes

On Sunday night I was cursed with the responsibility of having a job.  I don't typically work Sundays because I'm a devout football fan and I love my Giants.  Little did I know that I would be cursed even further by being able to watch half of the Sunday Night Football game against the Eagles.  It was a terrible sight, watching the Giants squander opportunity after opportunity and all because their ground game was nowhere to be seen.

I love the Giants because they are typically a very well balanced team that can run the ball with any team in the NFL.  Sure, they would sometimes falter against some very good defenses, but nothing like the ineptitude they have shown this year.  The running game is so bad that the fans at home games have started to boo Brandon Jacobs when he enters the game.  Jacobs is having a bad statistical year and his relationship with the team is strained due to a lack of playing time when the starter, Ahmad Bradshaw, is healthy, but he isn't the problem.  The offensive line and offensive coordinator are the source of the problem.

The offensive line suffered a blow due to the teams cap issues in the beginning of the season.  The 5 man uni was stripped of 2 of it's veterans in order to open up some cap room for other players that the Giants were unable to sign.  So, from the start of the season the offensive line has been working on gaining the chemistry amongst themselves to play as one cohesive unit.  Unfortunately that hasn't happened yet.  The blocking during runs hasn't been good.  That is why Jacobs hasn't been effective.  He isn't flashy or terribly agile, but when he is able to get moving north and south he is very difficult to tackle.  If he is hit before he is able to get moving then the play is likely to fail and that isn't the fault of the running back.  There weren't many running lanes for any backs on Sunday so lets put the blame where it belongs.

Another reason for the lack of a running game is the lack of knowledge that the offensive coordinator has on his players and how to sustain an effective running game.  Kevin Gilbride, Giants offensive coordinator, has been phasing the running game out for the last few years.  The Giants went to the Super Bowl behind the best running game in the league and Gilbride has decided that running isn't so important.  I can't tell you how many time I have seen the Giants pass 3 consecutive plays and then punt.  The running game is what keeps teams on schedule for down and distance and allows the Giants to do what they have been so good at for the last 5 years, play action passing.  Using Jacobs effectively requires an I-back set or pulling linemen in a single back set to allow him to run down hill with a full head of steam.  The shotgun draw play is not something that Jacobs has ever done well, but Gilbride seams to want the same offense for Jacobs that he would have for Bradshaw and that isn't going to work.  Gilbride needs to stay dedicated to the run and call plays that fit the personnel  rather than calling plays for the sake of calling that play.  I know that he has been a good coordinator in the past and part of the problem is the teams execution, but he has obviously fallen in love with the passing game and that isn't good for Giants football.

Dedication to the running game can be the best way to get it working.  The more reps that an offensive line has running the ball the better they will be and for a line that is still trying to gel it is imperative to instill a confidence in them that they can move the ball.  I understand that you have to do what works, but building a running game is essential to the future success of this team.  Hand the ball off and allow Jacobs to have a bigger impact on games so that this team doesn't waste a 2 game lead in the division and miss the playoffs.

Key to Beating the Option

I played football for just under a decade and the last 2 years that I played were dedicated to learning the triple option offense.  I hated it then just like I hate it now because it is an offense relies on the defense being undisciplined and never dictates play.  When an offense is relying on mistakes by unblocked players there is a good chance that within a game the defense will figure out the scheme and eliminate their confusion.  The end result is typically negative plays for the offense.

In order to stifle the option offense a defense has to be clear on it's responsibilities and forget about personal stats.  The option requires that a defender, typically an lineman, to be unblocked.  They read this players reaction to what he sees and the QB decides to hand the ball off, run himself, or pitch the ball to his third option if he has one.  The Broncos ran this play a lot against the Kansas City Chiefs because their defensive ends were undisciplined in their run pursuits.  They would either attack the running back or flow hard down the line of scrimmage in order to take away the cutback by the running back.  Both actions are clear keep reads for the QB who is then alone off the backside of the play action without anyone to touch him until he is at least 5 yards down the field.  If the free defender plays to contain the back edge or goes for the QB then the that is a clear give read for the offense.

The goal for the defense is to have the QB give the ball to the running back every time.  This way you can are protecting yourself against having huge gains from the QB and increase your chances of keeping the run to a minimal gain.  When the QB hands the ball off the option is a regular shotgun running play.  The way to do this is to attack the QB.  The free defender has to realize that by going straight for the QB he is determining what direction the play will go in and that the QB won't be a factor in the running game.  Even if the offense adds the triple option, as the Broncos did last week, it is important to make the QB make quick decisions and to get a hit on him on every play.  The quicker the free defender gets to the QB the better the chance the play will end in favor of the defense.  The key to the triple option threat is making sure the backside linebacker or safety knows they have the pitch man so the free defender can focus on hitting the QB. 

By staying disciplined and knowing ones responsibility on defense it is easy to slow down an option offense as long as the individual battle are won.  Forget about stats and remember the fundamentals that have been taught to you since little league.  Defensive ends must keep contain on the backside of runs by gaining depth into the backfield to ensure a team doesn't run a reverse.  By doing so, you also limit the effectiveness of the option offense.

Why Stop With a Statue

Everyone knows that the last few weeks has been very hard for the Penn State community.  The alleged crimes by Jerry Sandusky has knocked the university off of it's pedestal and, quite frankly, off it's rocker.  The aftermath of this tragedy has resulted in many prominent administrators being fired or forced into retirement and Joe Paterno is among the few that were terminated.  Last week I wrote an article on StateoftheSport.com in which I question the timeliness of his firing.  Today I'm going to defend a man that has committed no crime, possibly done nothing wrong, and is being unfairly persecuted by Penn State and the media.

Joe Paterno was not the one who molested a child in Penn State's locker room back in 2002.  Mike McQueary didn't catch Joe Paterno molesting anyone.  There aren't 40 counts of child molestation filed against Joe Paterno.  Why is he being treated like the child molester that Sandusky is alleged to be.  Paterno had a situation brought to his attention and acted on the information he was given in the proper fashion in the eyes of the law.  It is unclear what specifically was told to Paterno at this point, but it is clear that when he was presented with the grand jury's findings, he was shocked as to the charges and accusations against his former defensive coordinator.  That reaction says to me that he wasn't told in 2002 of the sodomy that McQueary allegedly witnessed.  Paterno told the grand jury that he reported an incident of touching and fondling of a possibly sexual nature to his superiors in the Penn State administration.  Since the grand jury didn't charge him of perjury, like they did with 2 Penn State administrator, they believed that what he said was what he was told and nothing less. 

I keep hearing about the moral responsibility to do more then just report it to his superiors and that there should have been some kind of follow up.  By going to his superiors, Paterno believed that the situation would be handled properly.  He trusted the men that he had worked with for possibly decades to do their part and investigate properly.  If they came back to Paterno and said the situation was looked into and taken care of then why should he follow up?  The people he trusted, now charged with perjury for lying to the grand jury, told him that everything is taken care of along with what was done, then why would he think that anything more needed to be done?  It is easy today to say that more should have been done because more crimes were committed after the fact, but based on the known facts it doesn't make sense for Paterno to do more than he did.  He heard of an incident and reported it to the people he was supposed to, end of story.  If you went to your boss, assuming you trust him/her, and reported an incident that may be criminal in nature and that boss comes back to you and said they looked into and dealt with it properly, would you do more digging?

Paterno was fired last Wednesday for not doing more in this situation.  He wasn't fired for molesting a child, performance issues, or any pending criminal charges for not fully cooperating with authorities in this case.  He was fired for following protocols specifically laid out by the school and state for the information he was given.  He followed the letter of the law and was fired.  He won't be the last I'm sure, but he is the scapegoat for Penn State University.  I haven't heard anything about the President of the university since he was fired and I've hardly heard anything about Sandusky since last Saturday.  All the talk is about Joe Paterno and the latest news is Penn State removing his statue during the Thanksgiving break.

The man coached at Penn State for 61 years.  61 years of running a good, clean program and producing not just good football players, but very good men.  61 years of contributions to Penn State's academic success and charitable foundations within State College, PA.  61 years of bleeding Penn State blue, not just for the football program, and he was fired without cause and unceremoniously and now he is being removed from the universities history piece by piece.  I say fine, but do it completely.  Rip down the library that he donated to Penn State and return every dime he donated to his university over the past 61 years.  If you want him erased for this one incident in which he did nothing wrong, then you give everything he gave you back.

I grew up in New Jersey with a dream of playing for Penn State and Joe Paterno.  Now, I'm a grown man who has never been more disappointed in a education institution.  The Penn State administration let the acts of a sexual predator slide to protect it's football program and now that same administrative body is using the Universities best employee, and the only one that followed the school's and states protocol properly, as a scapegoat.  I no longer have delusions as to what Penn State is all about and I will not support Penn State in anyway until Paterno's statue is returned to it's rightful place in front of the stadium and Penn State publicly apologizes for the way they have handled this situation.

NBPA Has No Clue

The NBPA has decided to reject the NBA owner's proposal for a 50-50 split in basketball related revenue.  They claim that the owners haven't dealt with them in good faith and that handing them an ultimatum this late in negotiations was arrogant and wrong.  It was an arrogant move, but it wasn't wrong and it wasn't done in bad faith.  The NBPA is just clueless to what leverage they have and the public perception of what is going on.

The NBA is currently in a lockout because the players have to much power and the owners, in some areas, aren't making money.  The smaller market teams have been struggling through the last few seasons and even the large market teams haven't had it easy.  The league was in danger of loosing teams because they just weren't profitable.  Some will say that it is the teams fault for not being good and not getting better over time.  I would normally agree with this assessment, but there is a reason the small market teams don't get any better and the reason is the players.

For the last few years we have seen small market teams be held hostage by their star players.  Lebron James did it in Cleveland, Chris Bosh did it to Toronto, Carmello Anthony did it right here in Denver.  These "stars" of the NBA will play for a team until they find a better situation and normally that situation has nothing to do with winning.  Most of the time it is a money grab.  Mello wanted to be in New York and did all he could to get there so that he could build his brand and make more money.  He would only sign his extension in Denver if he was traded to New York.  Why does he have a say?  He hasn't won anything and he is one of the worst team players I've ever seen.  Mello is a one on one guy and his shooting percentage isn't good enough to warrant this kind of star treatment.  Other players pull the same stunts so that they have to be traded and the teams that trade them never get the same talent in return so they are doomed to try and rebuild again.

The system is broken and the owners desperately want to fix it.  They want to establish a hard cap so that the big market teams can't get away with buying most of the great talent.  In this deal, however, the owners gave the players the soft cap that they wanted.  They did this in spite of themselves in order to get a season underway and to keep the momentum going from last years great season.  The players didn't think that was enough, they are stuck on the revenue split and it is understandable why that would be.  The last agreement gave them 57% of the basketball related revenue.  This agreement would give them 7% less of that pie, but the pie is bigger and it was growing so I'm not sure what the real value lost there would be.  I do know that the owners are emphatic that the deal before was bankrupting some of the franchises and that isn't good for anyone. 

The players are calling the last proposal from the league as an ultimatum and I don't agree with that assessment.  This deal has been in the works now for months and the owners have never gotten off the fact that the deal needs to be 50-50 and, in fact, many of the owners want it to be lower.  The NBA was tired of waiting for the players to come around and realize that the circumstances weren't going to change so they simply set an expiration date on this current offer and were willing to tweak certain areas of the deal in order to get a deal done.  They then let the players know what the next offer would look like if this deal was rejected.  An ultimatum would be take this or the season is over.  Letting the other side know where talks will go isn't an ultimatum. 

The NBPA is clueless in this situation and following bad advise.  The NFLPA filed an antitrust lawsuit this last summer and lost when they had a legitimate argument that they had no other place to play and make a living playing ball.  The NBA has no such argument thanks to the fact that many of them already have contracts to play overseas.  How can you argue that you can't make a living playing basketball elsewhere when earlier in negotiations it seemed like you were promoting the fact that you didn't need the NBA to make money.  Do you get how stupid that makes you look?  You're a joke and the worst part is that you haven't realized it yet.

The NBA is full of stupid, overpaid clowns.  You play a game for a living and you just wasted a full years paycheck so that you can get more money.  That doesn't endear you with fans and, in actuality, it kind of makes us mad.  We are the ones paying your salary with our loyalty to the NBA and to our teams.  You have routinely spit in the face of the small market teams and now you are throwing away money because your millions aren't enough.  I live check to check and with the current state of the economy you are making it harder for people like me to make a living.  I don't want to hear that not everyone makes the large money that Kobe and Mello make.  You all make more than you deserve and until you realize that the fans won't be on your side.  It's not like the NBA is the NFL and you're fighting for better health care for when you retire.  You want bigger, longer contracts and the ability to dictate where you play instead of being grateful for the fact you are being paid to play a game most of us have to pay to play.  Just a bunch of stupid clowns.

Broncos Hurting Future With Spread Option

The Broncos won for the third time in 4 Tim Tebow starts.  It is a great day to be a Denver Bronco and also to be their fans.  The Broncos are winning, their contending for the division, and their quarterback is proving all of his critics wrong.  Well, that last one isn't correct.  I'm a football critic and analyst and I'm still doubting Tebow's ability to beat good teams with his arm and the Broncos process of building for the future.

It's easy to say that the team is better because Tebow is at the helm and now they are winning games.  I can say that he has very little to do with the wins since he has taken over.  2 things have gotten better since Kyle Orton has been benched while one has gotten much worse.  The defense isn't allowing teams to score a lot of points in their wins and the running game has improved with the teams new dedication to it.  The passing game has been a joke with Tebow at the helm and this weeks punch line is 2 completions.

Since Tebow has taken over, the offense has scored more than 20 points only once.  In comparison, Kyle Orton only scored under 20 points one time in games he played from start to finish.  This means that the offense is actually doing worse with Tebow in the lineup.  Without the 38 points scored in Oakland the Denver offense would be scoring only 14 points per game in games that Tebow has started this year.  With that in mind I take a look at the rest of the schedule and ask myself if the Broncos can keep each of the remaining teams on the schedule to under 14 points.  The answer is no.  If they are lucky they will be able to keep the Jets and Chiefs off the scoreboard.  The Patriots and bills were score a lot and the Bears are a well balanced team right now that is proving difficult to stop.  Without the ability to produce point consistently, the Broncos can't sustain their current winning ways.

I was wondering, on Sunday watching the game, what would this offense look like if Orton were still the starter.  Imagine what the Broncos could do with the dedication they are showing to the run and still had the ability to throw the ball.  Orton would never be asked to throw the ball only 8 times in a game.  In his games this season Orton threw an average of 35 times a game.  Tebow has only been asked to throw just under 24 times a game and on Sunday it was an astounding 8 tries at throwing the ball.  The closest Orton has ever come to only 8 attempts in a game was against San Diego where he threw 13 times... in the first half.  I really think that the running game complimented with an efficient passing game would score more points than what the team has now.  I also think that the lack of attempts speaks volumes to how the coaching staff feels about their passer.

When looking to the future, past this season, I feel the Broncos are doing themselves a disservice by turning to a spread option running game.  The traditional sets produced very good returns in the run game and provided a sense of improvement from the beginning of the season.  Tebow has been everything but efficient since taking over.  He has yet to throw 50% of his passes for completions and when only asked to throw 8 times, he completed only 2.  Kyle Orton was completing almost 59% of his passes, 15% better than Tebow.  By changing the offense over to the spread option, the team is basically giving up on the passing portion of their offense and won't see any significant improvement to evaluate Tebow on.  How is that good for the franchise moving forward.

The Broncos, though contending for the division at present, are doing themselves a terrible disservice by running an offense that won't be effective in the long run.  The team needs to come out and run the offense that they plan on running next year, the offense they were running for the first 7 weeks of the season.  They need to do this so they can evaluate what they truly have in Tebow and every other position on offense.  By running the spread option, at least how they have been, they aren't seeing if Tebow can read offenses, throw on time and on target within a pro style offense, how good their current receivers are, and what the group as a whole will be capable in the future.  Along with those draw backs, the Broncos are making it harder to get rid of Tebow if they decide he isn't what they want come the offseason.  The more he wins in this style of offense the worse off the Broncos will be for the nest 2-4 years.

Fighting Can Be a Positive For Football Team

There was a report going around last week that Bill Belichick, when he was a coach for the Cleveland Browns, had paid a player to start fights in practice.  Not only do I not have a problem with this, but i think Belichick needs to renew the practice in New England immediately.  A little fight every now and then can do wonders for a team.

Chad Eaton was a practice player on the Cleveland Browns in 1995 when he claims that he was paid by Belichick to start "skirmishes" in practice.  This practice is by no means new nor is Belichick the last coach to use it.  When you feel that your team is talented but soft, you need to have a way to bring out the toughness in those players.  The best way to do this is by having another player get under their skin.  Eventually this will start a fight between those 2 players, but the idea is to have the 2 sides support each other.  If a fight starts between 2 guys, 5 guys will try and finish it.  It helps build comradery amongst your starts by letting the players know that everyone else has your back out their.

Fighting isn't just used in pro football either.  When I played on the practice squad in college my freshman year, we were encouraged to start a "fight" everyday.  We got out of conditioning everyday we got the starting defense to take a shot at us.  We weren't told to start throwing punches or do anything cheap.  It was our jobs to prepare the starters for that weeks game and if we weren't doing everything we could to win each battle then the team wouldn't be prepared.  So, we had to step up the intensity by blocking past the whistle, holding, talking a little trash, and occasionally through an extra shove in after a play was over.  We also had a rule that if any guy got into a fight by himself he didn't finish it by himself.  We weren't the best offensive squad, but there was no question that we were tight.

The Patriots look like they need to get in a fight on the defensive side of the ball.  They are the worst in the NFL right now and they don't look like they know how to hit anyone in the mouth.  Belichick needs to find a way to light a fire under their asses.  Maybe a little "skirmish" can bring the fight out of that defense and spark a solid run into the playoffs.

College Football's Regular Season Isn't a Playoff

The point of the BCS is to create a national champion in college football through a one game bout between the #1 and #2 ranked teams in the country.  The tradition of bowl games has won out in college football over a fan wanted playoff for quite some time and the main reason is because of how exciting the regular season is.  In terms used by traditionalist, every game matters.  Well, that isn't true and it will never be true in division 1 football.

On Saturday night the entire country witnessed the #1 ranked LSU Tigers battle the #2 Alabama Crimson Tide.  It was a great defensive battle in which only 15 points were scored throughout the entire game.  LSU won the game in overtime and Alabama was left wondering what could have been if they had executed a few plays better, how far would they drop in the polls, and will they have a chance to compete for another national title.  Well, the polls and BCS standings were very kind and the hope in Tuscaloosa isn't dead.  Alabama dropped a total of one spot to #3.

If the regular season is, in fact, the playoff system that the universities say it is then how is it that Alabama, loser or Saturday, didn't fall behind Stanford and Boise State in the BCS?  Why doesn't it matter that they won when Alabama lost?  This tells me that not every game matters, only SEC games matter.  You don't have to be undefeated or win your conference to have a shot at a national title, you need to win the SEC championship and then not get blown out by the SEC champion in order to get a shot at the national title.  It is shameful that a one loss team doesn't drop below an undefeated team in the standings.

I get the fact that strength of schedule matters, but I'm getting sick and tired of teams hiding in their conference schedules.  The SEC, for the most part, relies on the strength of the rest of the teams in the conference in order to get through to the National Championship game.  The problem there is that only one half of the SEC is terribly strong and it even then we are looking at 3 good teams at best on their schedule.  I know that Boise State has a far weaker schedule, but they how many teams competing for a National Championship are willing to put this giant killer on their out of conference schedule.  Georgia, an SEC team, was the only one to do it this year and was beat by 2 TD's in Georgia.  Don't tell me that they can't compete against the best teams in the country either.  Boise has lost 5 games since the beginning of the 2006 season and only 1 of them has come in a bowl game. 

Standford doesn't play in a cupcake conference at all.  The PAC-12 is no joke and has produced many National Championship contenders over the last 10 years.  USC, Oregon, and Stanford have been in the mix for years now and they all have to play each other during the regular season.  That is just as many hard games on the schedule as an SEC team and, honestly, the offenses are better in the PAC-12 so it isn't fair to write them off when comparing them to the SEC, but for some reason the college community does.

If LSU doesn't loose for the rest of the regular season and Alabama doesn't loose any more games then it is possible for them to meet in the National Championship game in January ahead of some undefeated teams.  How can you claim that every game matters when you obviously feel that certain teams don't matter?  How can a team that isn't in the running to win their conference be able to compete for a National Championship?  How can you claim the system is fair when it is clear that it isn't?  If the tradition is so important to college that the bowl system can't be touched, then why are traditional conferences and rivalries being destroyed for money and "super conferences"?  Throw all of college footballs "traditions" out and get a playoff system within the bowl structure.  Every other division has found a way and it is time for division 1 football to determine a true champion.

Who's Really To Blame?

When Tim Tebow won the game against the Miami Dolphins a few weeks ago he could do no wrong.  His abysmal performance for 54 minutes was wiped away and the "spark" that was missing in Denver had been found.  Then the Broncos play the Detroit Lions and got embarrassed.  Tebow played poorly for an entire 4 quarters and the local media turned on him.  He went from captain comeback to captain backup in a heart beat.  Then you have the blame game being played by commentators, local media, and national media members.  If you want to know who to blame for Tebows poor play to this point this season I'll tell you.

I'll start by telling you who isn't to blame, John Fox.  There isn't one part of Tebow's game that has been negatively influenced by Denver's head coach or his coaching staff.  They haven't had enough time to have any kind of impact on Tebow's game.  Greg Couch, am award winning writer for Fox Sports, would agree with me.  In his eyes the Bronco's coaching staff is out to embarrass Tebow and quiet his supporters.  He cites play calling for the lack of success that Tebow has had, but he also admits that Tebow has his own deficiencies.  Anyone blaming play calling doesn't understand what is going on in Denver and might just not be that observant. 

The Broncos just hired a new coach due to his defensive knowledge and results.  He also had a plan for certain type of offense that the team's management was very excited about.  That offense is a well balanced attack with an emphasis on the running game.  This means a lot of under center formations for the QB and it requires a certain amount of proficiency in the passing game.  The Broncos are dedicated to this style of play for the future of the organization.  Any QB they play this year has to show that proficiency within the passing game for the franchise to get better.  The play calling has been to showcase Tebow's ability to run this type of offense.  The Broncos started in the spread to get Tim comfortable and work him into the gameplan for the day.  He completed a few passes and lead the team down the field for a score.  The team then tried to transition into more of what will be their base offense and Tebow was ineffective.  He was ineffective on long throws, intermediate throws, and short throws.  He wasn't able to run the offense that the Broncos will be running for a large portion of the next 4 years.  Yes, Tebow may be better in the spread, college style offense, but that is not where this organization wants to go.  The play calling isn't meant to make Tebow look good, it is meant to test him on his knowledge of and ability to run the future offense of the Denver Broncos.

Now, if we want to assess blame for why Tebow has been as ineffective as he has been then there are 3 people that need to bear that responsibility.  The first is Tim's high school football coach.  High school is where we really start to develop the skills in our athletes that will hopefully take them to the next level.  This especially true for QB's because before high school the focus is on the running game because the level of skill just isn't there in pee-wee football to have a big passing game.  So, when Tebow got to high school, he should have been shown the proper techniques for throwing a football and learned how to take a snap from center.  This step in his development was never taken and it put Tim 4 years behind the curve when it comes to fundamental and skill set.

Urban Meyer is probably the worst offender in that regard.  Myers was Tebow's coach at the University of Florida.  He knew that there were serious deficiencies in Tim's game when he arrived at Florida and should have spent time fixing at least some of the areas that he struggled in.  Meyer never made Tebow take snaps from center, work on footwork from center, or adjust his throwing motion to help make him a more accurate passer.  Meyer won 2 championships on the back of Tebow and, in my mind, never did a thing to help Tebow advance his football career other than stand up for him on TV.  Bad coaching on both the high school and college level has set Tebow back 8 years in his development. 

The last person to blame is Tim Tebow himself.  I keep hearing about how hard Tebow works and how great of a team mate he is.  I'm not going to refute either of those claims for when Tebow is at practice or in season.  During the lockout, however, it would appear that Tebow hasn't gotten much if any better in any of area's in which he struggles.  I've given up on the throwing motion aspect of the discussion because all the experts tell me that at this point it will never change.  The footwork is poor, his accuracy is poor and his decision making has come into question.  These are all things that can be worked on in the offseason.  I've heard that the lockout really hurt Tebow's development because he didn't have the opportunity to work with his coaches.  I say that is a lousy excuse for a professional athlete to not improve during an offseason.  Tim knows where his faults lye and there are plenty of other professionals, former professionals, and coaches not currently in the NFL that could have and would have helped him during the lockout.  He didn't do the things that he needed to do during the offseason to improve.  He didn't put in the necessary work to be in a position to compete for the starting job in camp and then he was thrown to the wolves for all to get a piece of. 

At this point there is no reason to play the blame game with Tebow.  Ultimately it will rest on his shoulders to prove that he belongs in the league or not.  Eventually he will either step up his game or he will play himself out of the league.  Either way, the blame from here on out is all on him and, honestly, that's the way most athletes want it.

Miami Dolphins Are No Pushovers

Last week I called that the Broncos were going to beat the Miami Dolphins no matter who the QB was playing them.  Miami blew a 15 point lead with just over 5 minutes left in the game to allow Denver the victory in overtime.  This week I picked the NFC East leading New York Giants to win easily over the o-6 Dolphins.  It took 3 and 1/2 quarters for the Giants to get a lead in the game.  I keep expecting the Dolphins to loose just because, well, that's what they do, but they hardly make it easy.

The Dolphins have lost by 14 points or more in 2 of their 7 games this season.  Every other loss is 10 points or less.  10 points isn't a large margin of victory in the NFL these days.  With offenses throwing the ball more often and with better results around the league, it is possible to make up 10 points in a small amount of time.  Just ask the Broncos from last week.  They came back from 15 points down with just over 5 minutes left in the game.  So, when you look at all of their games, you can see that the Dolphins have been in most of them.  If just a few more things go their way then they would probably have 1 or 4 wins on their record instead of the zero that plagues them.

The problem with the Dolphins this season has been consistency.  Against the Giants today the Dolphins owned the first half.  The passing game was clicking when the running game got off to a slow start and eventually the Reggie Bush found a way to get his second 100+ yard rushing game of his career, most of which came in the first half.  The Dolphins scored 14 points in the first half and lead by 11 points until the Giants scored a TD in their 2 minute drill right before the half.  The Dolphins started the 3rd quarter much like the first 2 but were kept out of the endzone and forced to settle for a feildgaol.  That was the end of the offense for Miami. 

I don't know what happened to stall the offensive show that the Dolphins had going, but it came to an abrupt stop.  Moore couldn't avoid the pass rush of the Giants for the last 1 and 1/2 quarters of play.  The running game faltered and it appeared as though the receivers just couldn't get the separation that they did earlier in the game.  There were no turnovers in the game until an interception was thrown on a 4th and 28 situation with just under 2 minutes left in the game.  The Giants seemed to flip a switch and took control of the game in the 4th quarter.  Even after the Giants scored the go ahead TD, the Dolphins never appeared to quit, they just couldn't get the spark back that they had earlier.

I can't say that the problem is the QB in Miami.  It seems to me that they just can't put everything together at the same time for 60 minutes.  Most of the time they are in games and then something goes wrong for a period of time and the team can't recover.  It doesn't snowball or get out of hand, but they just can't afford to make any mistakes if they are going to win.  It isn't for lack of trying and coach Tony Sparano was quick to point that out after the game. 

There are problems in Miami, but I'm surprised that effort hasn't been one of them.  Coach Sparano won't be the Dolphins' coach after this season.  That was known when the organization decided to interview Jim Harbaugh last season while Sparano was still under contract and hadn't been fired.  With that kind of endorsement and long term commitment to their head coach I'm surprised that the locker room hasn't given up on him as well.  I can't sit here and tell you that coaching has nothing to do with the problems in Miami, but it is impressive how that team competes for themselves and their coach.  I hope that Sparano gets another shot somewhere else and gets the same effort out of that team with more wins to show for it. 

Miami is currently winless, but with the way they are playing, and Matt Moore becoming more comfortable in the starting role, I don't think it will last past this week.  I am calling it right now.  Miami will beat the Chiefs in their next game and then the Redskins after that.

More Concerned With Tebow After Comeback Win

I was originally going to write a simple player evaluation on Tim Tebow's performance, but all of the garbage coming out of Denver is forcing my hand.  I have the ability to look at the situation objectively and stay away from the bandwagon that has run through the local media.  Tim Tebow played 54 minutes of terrible football, 54 minutes out of 60.  For 6 minutes of average play he is on the front page of the Denver Post as "Tim-tastic".  The perception of this player needs to change when it comes to on the field play.

Woody Paige of the Denver Post was on ESPN today blaming the offensive coordinator for Tebow's lack luster 54 minutes of ineffectiveness.  He claims that the game plan was too conservative and didn't allow Tebow to sit back and throw the ball like he did in the last 6 minutes.  He said that the game plan reflected a coach that didn't have any confidence in his QB to complete passes.  I agree with the second statement.  Why should he have confidence in him?  He doesn't show you anything in practice and then you just have to trust it will be there in a game?  Then in the game he he shows you everything he did in practice for 54 minutes.  Where is the confidence supposed to come from? 

Lets look at the game as a whole.  Tebow was 13 for 27 with 161 yards through the air and 2 TD's.  Is there anything special about completing 48% of your passes?  It impresses me a little because up until the last 6 minutes it was 33%.  He was 5 for 15.  Of the 27 passes that Tebow threw, 12 were accurate.  So, he completed 48% of his passes when he threw only 44% of his passes accurately.  I need to point out that inaccurate passes aren't just uncatchable balls, but can be passes that are thrown outside of an area that gives the wide receiver the best chance to catch the ball and then do something with it if possible.  Tebow threw 15 inaccurate passes and most of them were uncatchable. 

The 2 TD's are the only thing in the stats that can be praised, but in reality, neither throw was very good.  The first TD was thrown to a wide open receiver and the ball was to far in front of the receiver and low.  Thomas had to dive for the ball and barely made the catch (I actually think he trapped it against the ground but there isn't enough evidence to prove it).  The second TD was a TE screen  that Tebow lofted to Fells who then did the rest by scoring from about 5 yards out.  Tebow's ball stayed in the air so long that Fells had to wait for the ball and the defense was given time to react.  Instead of an easy walk in TD, Fells had to fight through a tackle at the goalline in order to score. 

Tebow, the most mobile of the Denver QB's, was sacked 7 times against Miami.  Miami had 8 sacks in all their other games combined.  Tebow did have 47 yards from scrambling though so I guess that means something.  I noticed some things in the game yesterday though that is cause for concern when he does scramble.  If Tebow gets pressure from his right he tends to spin out of it to his right.  He doesn't slide to the left or step up in the pocket, for the most part he tries to spin towards the pressure in an attempt to escape.  This takes his eyes away from his receivers and leads to him getting in more trouble or running as soon as he turns around again.  Another thing is when he doesn't spin he tends to sprint towards the line of scrimmage instead of working towards a sideline with the hopes of completing a pass.  He doesn't give himself a chance to see the field before he has to take off and run and at times he doesn't realize where he is on the field with respect to the line of scrimmage.  One time during the game yesterday he was 4 yards past the line of scrimmage and looking to throw the ball.  He didn't, but if he thought he had an open receiver he would have.  The last issue I saw was Tebow's lack of protecting the ball when he is running around.  The ball is typically held with one hand and away from his body.  Eventually this will turn into fumbles

Tebow also has some throwing issues while scrambling and from the pocket besides his well documented poor fundamentals.  When Tebow is scrambling the ball is held in his throwing hand, but it isn't in a ready position to throw.  He holds the ball low instead of high and isn't protected by his other hand.  When it comes time to throw he has to bring the ball to his ready position and then go through his elongated motion.  Tebow missed a receiver that was no more than 10 yards right in front of him while running to his left.  He missed this receiver by throwing the ball 7 feet over his head because instead of throwing the ball, Tebow flicked it to the receiver.  In the pocket it was evident on several throws that Tebow wasn't sure where to throw the ball at first.  He hesitated and pumped the ball several times during the game in a manner that showed confusion instead of intent to deceive.  While doing this Tebow kept the ball far away from his body for an extended period of time leaving it exposed to being stripped and the balls he threw after doing it were terrible.

I will admit that the last 6 minutes for Tebow were a lot better than the first 54, but better isn't great.  Even when everything was clicking for the Denver Broncos Tebow wasn't amazing.  For the most part he was hitting wide open receivers in the middle of the field.  He had 1 really good throw and 1 truly great throw.  Like I said earlier, neither of the TD passes were spectacular and the 2 point conversion that he ran in was one of the worst defensive plays I've ever seen.  Was he good for the 6 minute and did what he needed to to win? Yes.

The one thing I think everyone has forgotten about yesterday's "amazing" comeback win is who it was against.  Miami is the second worst team in the league and for 54 minutes they looked better than the Broncos.  What makes anybody think that playing that poorly for 54 minutes would have turned into a win against any other team in the league besides the Colts?  If Tebow has only 2 yards of net passing through 3 quarters in any of his remaining games then it won't matter how well he plays in the last 5 minutes.

So far this year Tim Tebow has played in 6 quarters.  Of those six he hasn't even played well for a full 2 quarters.  If he can't find a way to be consistently average then the Broncos won't win another game this season.  As of right now, with the evidence over a game and a half, I have the Broncos winning 1 more game this season.  It will be the last game of the season against the Chiefs and it will only happen if Tebow gets better.  Stop praising mediocrity Denver and call it like it is, a comeback win against a team you should have beaten with ease. 

Revis's Interception Return Was Legit

On Monday Night Football last week Darrelle Revis intercepted a pass intended for Brandon Marshall on the goal line and returned it 100 yards for a TD.  At the time I though nothing more than, wow, nice play.  The catch was simple and the return didn't have any great moves or theatrics, but it was long and scored points.  I was shocked to hear Jon Gruden mention a missed pass interference call on Revis at the time, even after the slow motion replays, but I'm even more dumbfounded that analyst after the game were saying a flag should have been thrown on the play.  Since when is standing your ground a penalty?
The NFL is an offense powered league and the rules make playing defense very difficult.  Defenders aren't allowed to jam a receiver past 5 yards from the line of scrimmage.  Defensive backs can't make contact with a receiver past that 5 yard boundary.  Defenders aren't allowed to face guard a receiver while attempting to locate and catch a pass (face guarding is placing your hand in front of the face in order to restrict ones vision).  Defenders aren't allowed to grab or impede a receivers progress on a route by stepping in the path of a receiver and slowing them down without bumping or holding.  With rules this restrictive, and called more often than not, it is amazing to me that anyone can be a defensive back in the NFL and be effective on a consistent basis.  Revis is one of, if not the best in the game and his interception was clean.

The play in question starts with Revis manned up on Marshall.  At the snap Marshall avoids the jam from Revis by using an outside release and slapping his hands away.  Marshall is actually trying to run an inside route and wants Revis to overreact to the outside move and give him a clear window to get back inside.  Revis didn't bite on the outside pattern and was in great position when Marshall tried to come back inside.  Marshall didn't make good contact with his attempt to slap the hands of Revis away from his body and it caused Marshall to be off balance when he tried to get back inside.  Marshall was counting on Revis being more aggressive at the line allowing Marshall to actually grab Revis on the shoulder to get the inside leverage he needed on the play.  Since Revis played loose on the play Marshall wasn't able to plant solidly on his outside foot to come back to the inside.  This caused Marshall to stumble on that break and initiate contact with Revis.  As Marshall is falling into Revis there was contact between the 2 and a slight grab at Marshall by Revis.  This contact and "hold" on Marshall's jersey  were the only reason Marshall didn't fall flat on his face.  Then Matt Moore threw a terrible ball and the rest is history.

I hate it when people who are supposed to know this game better than anyone else watching blow an analysis that should set them apart from the rest of us.  Jon Gruden was right to say that he thought Revis got away with pass interference until after he saw the replay.  The replay clearly shows that Marshall initiated the contact with Revis and did so by running a terrible route.  Trent Dilfer then backed up Gruden's call during the half time show.  What video are these guys watching?  Revis got run into.  Though that has been called pass interference before, it isn't and it was a great no call by the official.  A missed call would have been throwing the flag and negating the interception.

Busy Trade Deadline for the AFC West

The last few days have been very active for the NFL compared to past trading deadlines.  There have been a few major deals and some smaller transactions.  The division that has been the most active is the AFC West.  This division has spawned 3 trades in the last few days and 2 of them were game changers.

Those of us who live in Denver are well aware of the Broncos trade of Brandon Lloyd and the fact that Eddie Royal and other WR's were actively being shopped around the league.  Lloyd's trade the the St. Luis Rams was the broncos way of telling the world that they are in a full blown rebuilding stage.  Tim Tebow is taking over a QB for the rest of the year to see what he can do and be evaluated for the future he may or may not have here in Denver.  Lloyd was traded for a conditional late round draft pick and Eddie Royal was being shopped for a similar pick.  That means the Broncos are going to try and build a team through the draft and are willing to give up on some decent talent in order to bring in new blood.

The Raiders are a the other team that made a splash in the division at the deadline.  On the 13th of October the Raiders acquired LB Arron Curry from the Seattle Seahawks.  Curry was the 4th overall pick in the draft 3 years ago and had 73 tackles last season along with 3.5 sacks and 2 forced fumbles.  He has proven to be a solid LB in the NFL and now calls Oakland home.  This is a trade that symbolizes a team in the ready position to win now.  The Raiders made this move because they are already very good on defense but Curry makes them just a little better and more consistent.

Then Jason Campbell broke his collar bone in his game on Sunday.  A Raiders  team that was poised to make a run at the division title or at least a wild card spot had to rely on the backup Kyle Boller to get them to where they want to be.  That is until yesterday when the Raiders made the decision that they can win now with the right QB.  The right QB is Carson Palmer, formerly of the Cincinnati Bengals.  Palmer was retired due to his dysfunctional relationship with his former team and not because he couldn't or didn't want to play.  The Bengals refused to trade Palmer simply because he asked to be traded and the Bengals don't give in to player demands.  So, how did Palmer wind up in Oakland?  Simple, the Bengals aren't stupid.  They didn't make a deal to get rid of a disgruntled player, they accepted a deal that gave them 2 1st round draft picks (potentially) over 2 years.  Now, if Palmer can get into shape soon enough, the Raiders are even better then they were with Campbell.

The AFC West made some significant moves before the trade deadline in which one team started its rebuilding strategy and the other got significantly better.  The trading deadline for the NFL is typically very dull, but thankfully this year it gave us something to talk about.  Now we can sit back for the rest of the season and see how these trades worked out, or in the Broncos case we'll see next year.

Broncos Begin to Rebuild

Earlier today the Denver Broncos traded their #1 wide receiver to the St. Luis Rams.  Brandon Lloyd, who has spent 2 years with Broncos, was apparently worth only a 6th round pick to the team as they sent him to St. Luis.  This doesn't sound like a good deal for the Broncos, but if we look a little closer to the situation then we can see why this deal was made.

Since the beginning of the camp this year Denver has been in the middle of a QB controversy regarding Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow.  Tebow owned Orton when it came to public opinion and Orton owned Tebow in everything that mattered to a football team.  Proof of that is in the comments made by Brandon Lloyd during the preseason and several times during the regular season.  Lloyd wanted Orton and it is very possible that he still does.  Orton didn't loose his job because Tebow is a better QB and Lloyd knows that.  Orton was replaced because the team is not going to make the playoffs again this season and the organization needs to see what Tebow can do over an extended period of time.  I doubt Lloyd was happy about the move and probably has made his concerns known to the coaching staff. 

What concerns could Lloyd have?  He is in the last year of his contract and in order to get paid the way he would like to, he needs to have another Pro Bowl year.  I doubt that would happen with a second year QB with major mechanical problems and who tends to be inaccurate.  Lloyd is also not targeted as much in the new offense that Coach Fox has implemented.  The combination of less opportunities along with less quality opportunities had to make Lloyd uneasy about his future contract.

The contract also plays a role on the management side of this deal as well.  With Lloyd going to the Pro Bowl last season and having a fairly productive year right now, it makes since that he would be asking for a large sum of money come the off-season.  The Broncos have openly said that they would not pay him what he was going to want so it also makes since for the Broncos to get another piece to build the future with.  Trading Lloyd gets the Broncos either a 5th or 6th round pick in next years draft depending on how well Lloyd plays for the Rams this season.  When you are rebuilding, like the Broncos are, you need to get draft picks to build depth and fill starting roles.  So, if you know you aren't going to keep a player after their contract is up then why not put yourself in a position to get better in the draft.

Lloyd may not be the only wide receiver that the Broncos say goodbye to this week.  It is rumored that Eddie Royal is also being shopped around the league.  Royal has been injured for most of this season and when he has played his impact has been negligible.  Royal hasn't been able to regain the form he had in his rookie year.  In the last 3 years he hasn't been able to come within 30 catches and 300 yards of his rookie season.  Now the offense has had a dramatic overhaul and Royal doesn't fit the philosophy of a run first offense.  The Broncos are looking for larger receivers and aren't going to be spending much time in the spread offense where a smaller receiver like Royal would be better suited.  So, the Broncos would love to get yet another draft pick for a receiver that no longer fits into the future plans of the organization.

The Broncos are rebuilding.  These 2 players won't be the last to be shipped out of Denver before next season.  The Defense is poised for a major overhaul is their play doesn't get noticeably better.  It is possible that the Broncos will start next season with 3 QB's that weren't on the roster this season.  In fact, unless Tebow shows a great deal of growth and improvement as a QB then I will promise you none of these guys will be back but 2 of them will be starters somewhere else.  I wouldn't be surprised to see 1 or more running backs move on as well.  If you're a Bronco fan, just know that this is coming and that it is a good thing moving forward.  You need patients to see the changes through and understand that while things will be bad now, things will get better very soon.

Orton Being Turned Into Scapegoat

Picture from broncotalk.net

I have been a resident of Denver for more than a decade and I have seen some QB treated very poorly and seen one career ended by this city.  The fans, sports casters, and coaches have not handled the post Elway era well at all.  Today, the Broncos switched QB's because of the team's poor record and the fact that they have an overpaid QB on the roster that fans love and want to see.  That's fine, I get it.  Drew Soicher saying that they made the change because of Kyle Orton's terrible play is just ignorant and wrong.  The worst part is that Soicher isn't the only one who feels that way and Orton's reputation is going to take a hit because of it.

I'm not going to say that Orton was having a career year and shouldn't have been demoted.  I agree with the timing due to the circumstances, but I can't put the poor record of the Broncos purely on Orton's shoulders.  He threw to many interceptions this so far this season.  The pick he threw on Sunday was particularly bad, but what about his other stats?  He still had 8 TD's this season and was averaging more than 200 yards passing a game, though I'm not sure if he finished the game on Sunday that stat would still be true.  Before Sunday's game he was completing just over 60% of his passes which would be a career high for him.  Let's not forget that the receivers have not been healthy all season either.  In one game Tim Tebow played receiver and Orton still has managed to get better every game when it comes to completing passes.  Orton isn't to blame for the Broncos poor overall performance. 

I wonder how many of the fans and sportscasters know that the defense is still ranked in the in the bottom third of the league.  The defense allows almost 400 yards of offense by opponents per game.  the defense also allows 28 points per game as well.  In the first 4 games the Broncos scored 20.25 points per game.  That's not great, but it should win more games then it looses.  I feel like I should also point out that besides the game against the defending Super Bowl Champion Packers, the Broncos were in every game they played.  It isn't like the team was getting blown out or embarrassed.  They were getting better every week, Orton included.

Then the Chargers came to town and the offense looked bad again.  Did everyone forget that the Chargers were ranked first in defense and offense last year?  Or did they forget that they are the best team in the division?  I didn't.  I'll tell you something that I didn't know about the the Chargers; their defensive backs are much better than the Broncos receivers.  If you want to blame someone for the poor stats that Orton had in the game on Sunday (besides the INT) they are the ones to to take the blame.  Orton completed less than 50% of his passes because more than 50% of the time there was no one open.  Orton, being the smart QB that he is, isn't going to make a bad situation worse by forcing balls into bad spots.  That is why his yardage was so poor, he was hitting the check downs because that was his only option.  Proof of the fact that the receivers weren't open is Tebow's 2 completions in the second half before the final drive against umbrella coverage. 

I can't stand the politics involved in playing QB in this city.  A player who has been very good during his stay here and getting better every year has just been run out of town for a player that is 2 years from being ready to play in the pros.  That's sad because he will be run out of town at the end of the season because he won't win more than 3 or 4 games.  Miami and Kansas City (twice) are the only teams left on the schedule that the Broncos should beat.  Minnesota has Adrian Peterson and the Vikings seemed to just realize that too so I don't see that game going well for the Broncos.  Everyone else on the schedule is vastly better than the Broncos.

So, if the Broncos go 4-12 again this season, like I believe they will, will the fans and sportscasters treat Tebow like they did Orton?  If Tebow goes 4-10 as a starter, meaning 3-8 this season, will it be time to go in another direction and blame the QB for yet another failed season?  Probably, because that is what they did to Griese, Plummer and now Orton. 

Denver Needs to Evaluate Tebow Properly

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I need to start by saying that I didn't watch the entire game between the San Diego Chargers and Denver Broncos on Sunday afternoon.  When I was watching, I noticed a Denver offense that was very much in a state of ineffectiveness.  I saw a defense that was playing hard and making some plays.  I turned the game off before half and only turned it back on once I saw that Denver was making a comeback.  Once the game was back on I was amazed to see Tim Tebow at the helm and leading the broncos down the field.  I will take you through the comeback and why it was able to happen and then focus on what the Broncos need to focus on for the rest of the season when evaluating their soon to be starter, Tim Tebow.

After 5 games the Broncos are 1-4 and have virtually played themselves out of the playoffs already.  For that reason alone I am feel that the move about to be made at QB is appropriate.  If anyone says that the reason for switching QB's is solely due to Orton's lack of production, especially against the Chargers, then they would be flat out wrong.  Orton wasn't the problem in Sunday's game, the receivers were.  Like I said, I didn't watch the entire game, but I did see a clip where the commentator showed replays from 3 different pass plays.  He showed those plays specifically because they were prime examples of Orton having no one, and I mean no one to throw too.  Orton went 6-13 (46%) in the first half when his receivers were covered extremely well.  I will say that the interception he threw on the first series was a terrible decision followed by awful execution.  The Broncos offense had scored 3 points in the half and the game was getting out of reach based on their production to that point. 

In the second half coach John Fox replaced Orton with second year QB Tim Tebow.  This was a brilliant adjustment for this game based on the problems that Denver was having.  When you have receivers that can't get open then you need a QB that can escape the pass rush.  Tebow is that QB and that is the reason he was chosen to replace Orton over Brady Quinn.  Tebow wasn't put in to complete passes, though that would have been a nice bonus.  He was there to scramble and make San Diego pay for their great coverage on the Bronco receivers.  This was brilliant because San Diego didn't game plan for Tebow.  They weren't ready for scrambling ability and due to the small sample of plays they were able to see in the third quarter, the Chargers weren't able to adjust much to the new look offense in the fourth quarter.  For this week, Tebow was the right choice to play in the second half.

With that said, the spark that Tebow brought to the offense in the fourth quarter can't be mistaken for great play or a good reason to replace Orton for the season.  Tebow completed only 4 of his 10 passes.  That is 6% less than Orton and one of his completions was a circus catch on a poorly thrown ball to Brandon Lloyd while another was a ball thrown to a wide open receiver in the middle of the field on the last drive when the Chargers were in their umbrella coverage.  Tebow's one TD was a beautifully timed and executed screen play where Tebow threw the ball about 5 yards.  He played his role in the play but it's not like he hit a receiver running down the seem for a score, the line and RB did most of that work.  Tebow also bobbled 3 snaps from under center which is an unacceptable number in a game let alone a half.  He was able to run effectively and scramble for extra yards which in this situation is what the team needed.

Going forward I am sure we are going to see quite a bit of Tim Tebow and more than likely he will be named the starter for the next game on Tuesday.  Should we expect the same spark and production from Tebow for the rest of the season?  Yes and no.  He is exciting so the "spark" will be there.  Unfortunately for the Broncos his shortcomings are going to drastically limit what the team can do offensively, especially in the running game.  His inability to cleanly and consistently receive the snap from the center is going to kill a lot of what Fox is trying to build in the running game.  Most running plays start with that exchange and develop from that spot.  Tebow, right now, can't be trusted to handle that exchange safely so he will spend more time in the shotgun where is much more comfortable.  That means that the broncos can't run as much of their I formation sets and pound the ball like they want to.  Running the ball out of the shotgun isn't as affective because of the spread nature of the offense and lack of a lead blocker.  Tebow can run the ball out of the shotgun, but he isn't so fast or powerful that I see him being overly effective in that capacity against a team that has a week to game plan against it.  Throwing the ball is the same old story for Tebow.  He is inaccurate, has a long delivery, and inexperienced reading defenses in a professional fashion. 

I agree with the move to change QB's and, even though Brady Quinn is a better QB, Tebow is paid a lot more and Denver needs to see if he has the potential at this point to be the future for the Broncos.  The fans have finally gotten what they wanted here in Denver and I just hope that their overblown expectations don't ruin a promising young players career. He's not going to be great and the offense will still look bad with him under center, but that won't all be on him.  When he only wins 3 games for the rest of the season the fans just need to remember that he is the one they wanted and that you get what you deserve.  

The NFL is One Wild Ride

For as long as I can remember I have always loved the NFL.  Football is the greatest game on the planet and it is also the best run sports organization in the country.  Form year to year the game changes and so do the teams.  That is what makes it great; we never know what to expect.  This year is no different and so far it has been a pleasant surprise.

There are 8 different divisions within 2 conferences in the NFL and right now there are 4 division leaders that most people wouldn't have been picked to be there before the season started.  In the NFC there are the Washington Redskins in the East and the Detroit Lions in the North that have stunned the sporting world.  Everyone knew that the Detroit Lions were going to be better than they were in years past with a much improved defense and a QB in Stafford, that if health, has shown flashes of greatness.  I don't think anyone thought that they would be undefeated and tied for the division lead with the Green Bay Packers.  The Redskins are also tied for the division lead with the New York Giants, but currently hold the tie breaker since the beat the Giants in week one.  With Rex Grossman as the QB I know I thought that he would prove that he hadn't changed from his old hot and cold self.  So far he has been steady, but I'm still not convinced that he won't revert to locking on a receiver and throw the ball into triple coverage.  Until that happens though the Redskins are looking good in the East with Dallas and Philly continually self destructing.

The AFC has produced the Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans.  Buffalo has had a few descent seasons over the last few years but they have never showed the ability to get over the hump.  Then this year they not only beat the New England Patriots, but did it by overcoming a 20+ point deficit.  I want to say that the road to the AFC East goes through Buffalo now, but Tom Brady threw 4 interceptions in that game to get the Bills back in it and last week they lost to the lackluster Cincinnati Bengals.  The Titans had a terrible year last year and with a new coaching staff and a new QB in Matt Hasselbeck no one thought that they would be as good as Houston.

The NFC West is a small surprise to many at this stage.  Everyone knew that this division was going to be bad again, and they are, but they have flipped the order from last year.  Coming into this season many thought that Seattle and St. Luis would be battling for the division lead since last year Seattle won the division and St. Luis had a lot of talent that was very young and performing well.  Instead, the 2 teams have one win between them and haven't looked good in any of their games.  The 49er's, however, have won 3 out of 4 games and just finished an impressive comeback win against the NFC East preseason favorite Philadelphia Eagles.

There are some great stats to go along with this exciting season.  The team with the highest point differential for the season is Baltimore.  They have manage to outscore their opponents by 62 points over the first 4 games.  Detroit is second with a 59 point differential.  on the other end of the spectrum is the St. Luis Rams.  They have been outscored by 67 points in their games and that isn't even the worst differential in the league.  Kansas City, last year's AFC West champions, have a 77 point deficit over the first 4 games.  That means that they are loosing their games by almost 20 points each week.  Arizona and Philadelphia have a -1 and 0  point differential on the season and are the only teams with a point differential of -10 or higher without a winning record. 

For the rest of the season I am interested to see how the landscape will change.  Who is going to come from the back of the pack to win a division or at least a wild card?  How many more double digit leads are going to be surrendered this season?  Who is going to establish themselves as the elite teams in both conferences?  I love this game because we are a quarter of the way through the season and there are many more questions to talk about and only opinions to answer them for weeks to come.  What do you think will happen?

Alex Smith is a Solid QB



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It's hard to believe that Alex smith is now in his 7th season with the 49'ers, but he is and it hasn't been the easiest road for him or the team.  Smith has been the recipient of some harsh criticism over the years and even the fans of the 49'ers have called for the backup on more than one occasion.  It is, however, a new year and that means a fresh start and new round of evaluations and opinions from the media and bloggers like myself. 

I broke down Alex Smith's play against the Dallas Cowboys this weekend to make my own determination about his pro potential and effectiveness.  I chose this game because the Cowboys defensive is pretty solid and a fair test of any QB's ability.  At a glance Smith's stats aren't impressive.  He completed 66% of his passes for 179 yards averaging just over 11 yards per reception.  He had 2 TD's with 1 Int and was sacked 5 times.  Like I said, not impressive, but that is why evaluations aren't done purely on stats

When evaluating any position, but especially the QB position, it is important to take into consideration the tools that the player brings to the game as well as their overall performance.  Watching Smith take snaps from center, something he didn't do much of until he got to the pros thanks to poor coaching in college, I saw a QB sound in his footwork, comfortable in the pocket, and able to make proper decisions quickly.  His throwing motion is very sound as well.  He holds the ball just below his chin toward is back shoulder which is the proper ready position to throw a ball.  Once he decides where to go with the ball, Smith brings the ball up to ear level and releases the ball high.  It is a very compact motion that allows him to get the ball out quickly and accurately.  His throwing motion doesn't change when he is on the run so he can be very affective in that area of the game as well.

Now we have to look at the play on the field.  The stats overall aren't impressive, but when we look closer we can see what should be expected of Alex Smith now and in the future.  Smith threw the ball 26 times in the game on Sunday (2 throws were negated by penalties for the official stats) and 19 of those passes were caught by his wide receivers.  1 of those catches was negated by a penalty and 2 others were passes that were caught out of bounds.  The catches out of bounds are the fault of both the QB and the receiver.  both were fade routes that were thrown in a place were only the receiver could get the ball but it also took the receiver out of play in order to make the catch.  The receiver, though, needs to run the route so that there is room to put the ball in play so that the QB has an opportunity to make that completion.  Of the 7 passes that weren't caught 3 were dropped and one of those would have been a TD (the 49'ers scored a play later on a one yard run due to a pass interference call).  So of the 26 passes that were thrown 23 should have been caught in play.  That is impressive.  Smith threw 2 poor passes the entire game and one was a bad decision more than a poor throw.



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The decision I'm talking about was the interception that Smith threw in the game.  Smith had plenty of time in the pocket but failed to accurately determine the coverage being played.  A linebacker was in man coverage but had help over the top so he was spying the QB the entire play so he was able to see the throw to a different receiver and break off his man and make the pick.  It was the only really bad play that smith made in the game.  He was sacked 5 times in the game but all came from immediate pressure that he couldn't escape and not from hanging onto the ball.  He was pressured 8 times in the game and never once showed signs of panic.

After watching the game on Sunday I am convinced that San Francisco made the right decision in staying with Smith as their QB.  He is a very accurate passer and capable of running that offense.  The problem with Smith to this point has been a lack of consistency.  He is on his 3rd head coach and 7th offensive coordinator in 7 years.  It doesn't matter how good you are, if there is no stability around you then your play will be inconsistent as well.  Jim Harbaugh will hopefully be that consistent influence on Smith and allow him to take the next step towards being a successful NFL QB for the rest of his career.

* All evaluations are made from the game film that can be abtain by watching the game on TV.  I don't have access to actual game film which would make for a true coaches evaluation of a player's overall performance.